BOOKMAKER Peter Coster says he is 'only guessing' in assessing River Verdon as a 14-1 chance in the A$1.5 million W. S. Cox Plate (2,040 metres) at Moonee Valley today. 'It's virtually impossible to line up his form,' Coster says of the Hong Kong champion.
'His record shows that he has obviously been a very good horse, but whether he can win at this stage of his career is another matter. 'But his jockey John Marshall is very pleased with the way he has been going in Melbourne, so that courts for something. That's why we are treating River Verdon with respect.' However, Coster is prepared to take risks with three-year-old Danewin, who will be ridden by Jackie Tse. After having Danewin - a winner of the Group One Spring champion Stakes (2,000 metres) at Randwick on October 1 - as a 25-1 chance in early markets Coster has eased him out to 33-1. 'It's going to be a difficult race for Danewin,' said Coster. 'He will be having his first start around Melbourne's left-handed way of racing and that won't help. Besides, I don't know that his style of racing will be suited by Moonee Valley.
'He'll drop back in the early part of the race and, to my mind, I think he'll be much better suited in the Victoria Derby, at Flemington, next week. 'I think that's definitely the race for Danewin.' Coster has the imported six-year-old Jeune as a ruling favourite at 3-1. Jeune, who is owned by Sheik Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum and trained by David Hayes, established his Cox Plate credentials by winning the Underwood Stakes (1,800 metres) at Caulfield on September 17.
He then did not receive the best of rides from Rod Griffiths, who will be in the saddle again tomorrow, when second to Rough Habit in the Caulfield Stakes (2,000 metres) on October 8. Since then Jeune has galloped in dashing style and the stable is confident he will bring up a second win in the event for Sheik Hamdan, who won in 1989 with Almaarad. But Bart Cummings, whose opinion must be respected, believes he can notch a second victory in the Cox Plate with four-year-old Sir Tristram mare Tristalove.
Although Cummings is regarded throughout Australia as the Cups King - resulting from his success in the nation's richest races - his only Cox Plate victory has been with champion Taj Rossi in 1973. 'In the past I've concentrated on winning the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, so I haven't had that many Cox Plate runners,' he said. 'This year I've prepared Tristalove especially for the race and everything's gone right.' Tristalove, who will have the services of champion jockey Damien Oliver, scored a game win in the Feehan Stakes (1,600 metres) at the Valley on September 10 and then ran third to Redding and Paris Lane in the Turnbull Stakes (2,000 metres) at Flemington on October 2. Unfortunately for Tristalove the Turnbull was a muddling affair and with every sign that the Cox Plate will be a truly run affair she will be much better suited tomorrow.
Redding, who produced a whirlwind finish that led to him capturing the Turnbull on protest, is worthy of the utmost respect. He has been plagued by foreleg problems, but his trainer Gavin Kelly says Redding is in 'fine shape' coming into the Cox Plate. 'I don't think I have ever had him better,' Kelly says of Redding. 'I truly believe he can win the race.' It is very much in Redding's favour that he has drawn the coveted barrier one and that should enable Danny Brereton to allow him every possible chance.
