You would not know it from the record stock prices or the number of planned resorts in the pipeline, but Macau's unprecedented gambling boom has a built-in expiration date.
Given the billions of investment dollars and lengthy construction timetables required by the Cotai-style megaresorts, analysts and investors are starting to ask the inevitable question of what happens when the first of Macau's six casino licences, or concessions, begin to expire on March 31, 2020.
Will all six be renewed? Will the government exercise its right to take over ownership of casino assets? Will operators be hit with tax increases or other new fees? Will new bidders be allowed into the market?
'The short answer is we do not know,' University of Macau associate professor of law Jorge Godinho said at a gaming conference in the city last week. 'These are matters that need to be considered and decided many years in advance because they involve investment plans with long-term horizons.'
The implications for Macau are huge. The gaming industry is the city's largest employer, and direct taxes on gambling accounted for 82 per cent of all government revenue last year. Macau's 33 casinos booked 188.3 billion patacas in gambling revenue last year.
The 2001 law that ended Macau's gaming monopoly and the six concessions that were subsequently granted stipulate that the licences are at all times the property of the government, which retains vast powers over the licensees and their gaming-related assets in the territory.