Days after Xinhua dismissed ATV's report of former president Jiang Zemin's 'death', many still believe the story. The fact ATV retracted it and apologised did little to change their view. Quite a few are clutching at the idea that Jiang is dead - if not medically, then in a practical sense - and the news is simply being covered up by the Communist Party for fear of social instability and a power struggle.
The central government's past record in dispensing the truth made matters worse. The fact that the very name Jiang Zemin has become the latest censored word in mainland cyberspace only helps to fan speculation. It is almost certain that Jiang's health is in serious trouble. It is unthinkable that a man who loves grand occasions, as Jiang does, would willingly be absent from the 90th anniversary celebrations of his party.
Hiding a top leader's death from the public is never easy, but it's almost impossible in today's China. There is also no compelling reason for the present leadership to do so. Jiang may still be an influential figure nearly a decade after his retirement, but his death will not carry the same kind of weight as those of his predecessors Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Yet in both those cases, news of their deaths was announced within 24 hours of their passing.
While China has moved little towards a meaningful democracy, the Communist Party has made efforts to institutionalise itself. Such events as a leader's death will be handled through a set of procedures. It is increasingly difficult to break the procedures without wide consensus among the ruling elite. Precisely because of power divisions within the party, whichever camp wishes to cover up Jiang's death will risk attacks from others.
