Despite a bumper summer harvest, the agriculture ministry does not expect grain output to grow this year because of the likelihood of further natural disasters and incidences of crop disease.
It would be 'very difficult' for the autumn grain harvest, which accounts for 80 per cent of annual production, to keep growing this year, Chen Mengshan, the Ministry of Agriculture's chief economist told a press conference on the rural economic outlook yesterday.
'The autumn harvest is facing a great challenge from [foreseeable] natural disasters, and crop diseases and pests ... it is not showing us an optimistic prospect,' Chen said.
The central meteorological bureau forecast possible drought in parts of the northeast, the most important grain-producing area, from now until November, he said. Temporary droughts could also occur in the south, which would also be hit by more typhoons than usual.
However, he said the government would work to ensure that annual grain production remained above 500 million tonnes. The ministry said last year's total harvest was 546 million tonnes.
Official data shows that the mainland's grain output has grown for each of the past seven years. But the figures are widely doubted by analysts and industry players as the usual production cycle is 'growth for two years, stagnation for one year and reduction for another'.