Can Asia keep its lights on without nuclear energy?
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan's call this month for an end to Japan's nuclear energy programme followed a similar pledge made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Before the triple tragedy that struck Japan on March 11 and consequent problems with the Fukushima nuclear reactors, such decisions would have been unimaginable.
Predictions were instead for a nuclear energy renaissance, with the promise of abundant, cheap power that is low in carbon emissions. Post-Fukushima, long-standing minorities of anti-nuclear protesters have gained wider support.
But is going non-nuclear a workable policy? Or is it simply caving in to popular but temporary and perhaps overstated fears?
In Japan, Kan's call is already facing opposition from pro-nuclear energy companies and opposition politicians. With Kan's low poll ratings, some suggest neither he nor the policy will last.
Beyond the shadow of Fukushima, others across Asia must take into account a wider energy challenge. As the region continues to grow, so does its energy needs.
Supply has been hit by uncertainties in the Middle East. Prices for crude oil are fluctuating, and most predict the long-term trend will be upwards.
Asia is not well positioned in this. The regional economies need but mostly are not self-sufficient in energy. China and India have few domestic energy sources, other than polluting and carbon-heavy coal. Oil imports from the Middle East remain critical but look to be increasingly risky and expensive.
This sets the context for nuclear energy ambitions across Asia. The Chinese intend to roll out the grandest nuclear power plant building programme in history. Southeast Asian nations with no experience in large-scale nuclear power generation - Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand - also plan to build their first plants.
After Fukushima, Beijing has called for a pause to re-examine safety issues. But other Asians, notably Vietnam and Malaysia, continue to push time lines. In many cases, their own citizens are not consulted, despite public concerns over environmental protection, human health and security.
The overarching context of energy policy seems lost in the anxiety to push ahead with nuclear plants. Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia continue to subsidise energy. Artificially low energy prices encourage waste and kill incentives to invest in energy efficiency and alternative technology.
Aside from China, others in Asia project only small percentages of their total energy needs will come from nuclear power. Indonesia for example targets to meet just 5 per cent of its needs from nuclear by 2025. Vietnam plans to have 14 plants by 2030, providing a modest 8 per cent of power needs. Given safety and security concerns, Southeast Asian nations seem to be risking a considerable amount for relatively small returns.
In contrast, studies suggest that energy efficiency measures can achieve at least the equivalent savings in power needs with safe, off-the-shelf technology at a much lower cost. Renewable energy currently costs more but with technological advances may prove viable in the medium term.
It is in this context that Asians should watch what happens in Germany and Japan. Each derives around a hefty 30 per cent of their energy mix from nuclear. From this scale, it will take considerable effort to develop sufficient alternatives while keeping the lights on.
Germany has already increased generation from renewable sources from 6 per cent in 2000 to 16.5 per cent today. If these two industrial giants can wean themselves off nuclear power, they will set a path for others to follow to meet energy needs as their economies grow, while lowering carbon emissions.
For now, Asian policymakers should consider a middle path. The nuclear option need not be taken off the table until alternatives are demonstrated to produce sufficient, affordable and sustainable energy. But, they must avoid a headlong rush to nuclear without fully considering the costs and risks.
Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. This article first appeared in Singapore's Today newspaper
