The state of play for the next chief executive election is becoming clearer. As I have predicted, it will be a fight between Chief Secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen and Executive Council convenor Leung Chun-ying in this final small-circle election before universal suffrage arrives in 2017.
Former Legislative Council president Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai, who previously said she would consider running, now backs Tang as the most suitable candidate. However, she added, Tang would still need public support, and that would depend on his policy platform. But Fan didn't completely write herself off; she said that if Tang decided not to run, she wouldn't rule out reconsidering her candidacy.
In fact, I believe the media and the public have already written her off. She will soon fade away and have no news value.
Tang may not have declared his candidacy but his intention to run has been indirectly expressed through a number of his influential supporters, including Chan Wing-kee, a local delegate to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and legislators Lam Tai-fai and Chim Pui-chung. Now even Fan has come out in support. It's time for Tang to step forward.
There have been reports that Tang will resign this month so he can announce his candidacy. But it's not that simple; much depends on what arrangements the government has in mind.
As chief secretary, Tang is second in command; his resignation will have to be approved by the central government, while the Hong Kong government will need time to pick a successor. It's not really in Tang's hands as to when he can leave the administration. So, we can't really blame him for not coming forward to make clear his intention.
Meanwhile, Tang's main rival Leung has taken advantage of his rising approval ratings in recent weeks and signalled his intention to contest the election. Leung even said he would resign from Exco at an appropriate time to focus on his preparations.