Huang Xiangning is among a small legion of diehard mainland seismologists who favour the study of earthquake forecasting, a field he says could die out in 10 years. The 74-year-old retired academic recounts his work in a career spanning more than 40 years and how he was marginalised for his beliefs.
How did you get involved in earthquake forecasting research in the first place?
I had worked for a unit of the now defunct Ministry of Petroleum since graduating from Beijing College of Geology, now known as China University of Geosciences, before I was recruited in 1967 by Li Siguang, a renowned Chinese geologist, for a special unit tasked with earthquake forecast research. Li, who was later to become minister of geology, was commissioned by late premier Zhou Enlai to set up the China Seismological and Geological Team, the predecessor of the China Earthquake Administration, along with another scientist, Weng Wenbo, after a devastating 7.2-magnitude quake in Xingtai, Hebei province, in March 1966 that killed more than 8,000 people.
Could you briefly describe how you have approached earthquake forecasting research?
The school of thought behind our research is the application of Li Siguang's geological mechanics, in the belief that any crustal movement inside the Earth will lead to changes in the amount of geo-stress or crustal stress, and that analysis of such changes collected at monitoring stations across the nation would help us determine where and when an earthquake would happen as well as its intensity. Li, a mentor of mine, likened earthquake forecasting studies to the way a doctor of traditional Chinese medicine diagnoses someone by taking his or her pulse.
What are the highlights of your research?
