Mortgage consulting company mReferral expects the total value of mortgages from banks for this year will be about HK$228 billion, lower than the HK$324 billion for 2010, as a result of the quieter market in the second half. Chief economic analyst Sharmaine Lau says there may be a mortgage war in the first quarter of next year, but warns that rates could rise further in 2012, possibly reaching 4 per cent.