As Ma Ying-jeou approaches the end of his first term as president of Taiwan, he is credited with not rocking the boat in the Taiwan Strait. Ironically, while Ma deserves praise for easing cross-strait tensions, it is pertinent to reflect on whether the policies of his first term will endure. Do they, in the long term, create circumstances in which the explosive issues of sovereignty and Taiwan's security can be peacefully resolved?
Ma has gone out of his way to avoid creating tension, unlike his predecessor Chen Shui-bian, who was branded a troublemaker in Beijing and regarded as unpredictable in Washington and several Asian capitals. President Hu Jintao, in turn, is credited for his Taiwan 'policy of greater patience', as Washington-based analyst Alan Romberg puts it, aimed at deterring Taiwan's independence rather than insisting on hasty reunification. Beijing has responded to Ma's overtures by emphasising the positive trends in cross-strait relations. In Washington and across Asia, heads of state have commended Ma's approach.
As a result, Taiwan has to a large extent fallen below the international radar. On the one hand, this is indicative of improved cross-strait relations. On the other, a decline in international attention creates new challenges for resolving the fundamental contradiction between Beijing's insistence on reunification as the penultimate (though not short-term) solution and the majority view in Taiwan for the status quo to continue indefinitely.
A debate on the relevance of Taiwan is already under way in Washington. Among European policymakers, the Taiwan question has all but receded into oblivion.
Over the past three years, economic and people-to-people ties across the strait have strengthened. A free-trade agreement, direct commercial flights between Taiwan and the mainland, increased tourism, and Taiwan's role as observer at the World Health Assembly, are all results of Ma's 'tread softly' policies.
Ma's rationale from the outset has been that economic integration will have positive, transformative effects on the cross-strait relationship; in particular, more exchanges can help to build trust and understanding. But support for unification now or in the future has only risen marginally since Ma took office (9.8 per cent in August 2008; 12 per cent in September 2011). Opinion polls commissioned regularly by Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council show that about one-quarter of respondents support independence now or in the future. One- quarter support the status quo indefinitely.