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A safety net ripped apart

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The issues

Getting the budget wrong

The government has been wrong about its budget forecast - twice. When it thinks it has a budget deficit, there is instead a surplus. Critics say the underestimation is troubling.

'How does the government frequently get its forecasts wrong?' activist Christine Loh Kung-wai wrote in an opinion article for the South China Morning Post.

Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah was way off the mark in his budget in February 2010; a forecasted deficit of HK$25.2 billion turned out to be a surplus of HK$75.1 billion. It was the same thing the next year: an estimated deficit of HK$8.5 billion became a surplus of HK$66.7 billion.

'The government has an embarrassment of riches,' wrote Loh, chief executive of policy think tank Civic Exchange. 'The issue is how the financial secretary chooses to give it back to the people. His preference is not to use more recurrent spending ... so that Hong Kong can do more in education; in welfare and services provision for the elderly and those with long-term illnesses; in cleaning up the environment which would benefit everyone; in improving primary and medical health services.'

Legislator Regina Ip Lau Shuk-yee, chairwoman of the New People's Party, also criticised the government for its gross underestimation.

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