Leung's win only the start of a journey into uncertainty

The chief executive election is finally over after tormenting the people of Hong Kong with scandals and feuds for the past few months. According to a mock popular election organised by the University of Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying won, but obtained only 17.8 per cent of the vote.

With Beijing's support and its liaison office soliciting votes for him at the last minute, Leung managed to win the real poll, but with the lowest number of votes since the first chief executive election in 1996, and amid the lowest level of social cohesion.

When the result was announced, Leung's camp and family appeared rather sombre. They must have realised this was a narrow victory and the road ahead will be littered with obstacles. Issues to resolve include forming a governance team, building the governance authority and pre-empting the political credibility time bomb.

On the question of forming a new governance team, it's believed that Beijing wants at least 90 per cent of the existing principal officials to stay on to maintain stability and a smooth transition. If so, Leung would have no power to form a government with his own people, and it would mean his campaign pledges are mostly empty promises.

There are plenty of senior officials who will refuse to bend their principles to work with Leung and the new administration. Therefore, Leung will have great difficulty trying to form a new team. Among his supporters, there is only a small handful of people capable of being bureau secretaries. They are former education chief Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Urban Renewal Authority chairman Barry Cheung Chun-yuen and Fanny Law Fan Chiu-fun, the former permanent secretary for education and manpower.

It's believed that Leung wants to expand the government structure from three top secretaries and 12 bureaus to five top secretaries and 14 bureaus by creating two deputy secretaries and two more bureau secretaries. The idea is there, but where can he find the talent?