The chief executive election is finally over after tormenting the people of Hong Kong with scandals and feuds for the past few months. According to a mock popular election organised by the University of Hong Kong, Leung Chun-ying won, but obtained only 17.8 per cent of the vote. With Beijing's support and its liaison office soliciting votes for him at the last minute, Leung managed to win the real poll, but with the lowest number of votes since the first chief executive election in 1996, and amid the lowest level of social cohesion. When the result was announced, Leung's camp and family appeared rather sombre. They must have realised this was a narrow victory and the road ahead will be littered with obstacles. Issues to resolve include forming a governance team, building the governance authority and pre-empting the political credibility time bomb. On the question of forming a new governance team, it's believed that Beijing wants at least 90 per cent of the existing principal officials to stay on to maintain stability and a smooth transition. If so, Leung would have no power to form a government with his own people, and it would mean his campaign pledges are mostly empty promises. There are plenty of senior officials who will refuse to bend their principles to work with Leung and the new administration. Therefore, Leung will have great difficulty trying to form a new team. Among his supporters, there is only a small handful of people capable of being bureau secretaries. They are former education chief Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Urban Renewal Authority chairman Barry Cheung Chun-yuen and Fanny Law Fan Chiu-fun, the former permanent secretary for education and manpower. It's believed that Leung wants to expand the government structure from three top secretaries and 12 bureaus to five top secretaries and 14 bureaus by creating two deputy secretaries and two more bureau secretaries. The idea is there, but where can he find the talent? People who are capable will not be willing to work for the Leung administration and risk tarnishing their reputation because of the many unknown factors about him and his team. Without a capable team, Leung will find it difficult to build his governance authority. Moreover, he has already talked about the need to implement the controversial Article 23 national security legislation. This has inevitably aroused widespread public fear. The momentum to form a coalition to stop Leung from implementing Article 23 will surely become a community consensus in no time. The opposition will give its full backing to encourage the public to take to the streets to fight the legislation. Therefore, it's highly likely that we will see half a million protesters turn up at this year's July 1 rally to call for Leung to step down. The central government shouldn't have high hopes that Leung will be able to push through Article 23 because there are many opposing forces. Leung might not get the votes he needs in the Legislative Council if members from the pro-establishment camp join hands with the pan-democrats. I believe Leung only promised Beijing that he would push through the legislation to gain the central government's support. Leung has also been troubled by a string of scandals and allegations. They include: the West Kowloon design competition controversy, his alleged intention to shorten the licence period for Commercial Radio in 2003, claims that he suggested using riot police to suppress July 1 protesters against Article 23 in the same year, so-called black-gold politics, rumours of his underground Communist Party membership and his stand on June 4. Any one of these ticking time bombs could blow up in his face and destroy his carefully guarded political credibility. Even though we've not seen the Executive Council's confidential records, the truth will come out eventually. In the meantime, with Leung coming to power soon, we can expect a long nightmare. Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator and founder of DBC Radio. taipan@albertcheng.hk
