Banks, balance sheets and local-currency bond markets are more robust than in 1997, there are no destabilising capital flows, and most currencies are no longer tightly pegged to the dollar. China’s projected economic rebound will also help regional recovery.
The world is likely to avoid a major technology split despite rising global tensions, but better outcomes require multilateral efforts. By staying above the Sino-US fray, the rest of the world can help forge a new consensus based on shared technological progress.