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James David Spellman
James David Spellman, a graduate of Oxford University, is principal of Strategic Communications LLC, a consulting firm based in Washington, DC.
James David Spellman, a graduate of Oxford University, is principal of Strategic Communications LLC, a consulting firm based in Washington, DC.
Languages Spoken:
English
The reckoning ahead for the AI bubble promises to reprice expectations, force economic trade-offs and call out circular deals.
The world appears to have forgotten a key lesson of the global financial crisis: some problems were spotted earlier but sidelined.
Great technologies might be able to survive the bursting of bubbles, but the portfolios of investors are unlikely to be as fortunate.
Google may become the largest blockchain player. Without global regulation, the dominant technology could set rules worldwide by default.
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Improvisation masquerading as strategy does nothing to strengthen the US and only makes trade negotiations more difficult.
The financial industry’s use of emerging technologies could lead to cascading crises if regulators don’t act fast to enforce transparency.
Triangulation offers ambiguity and flexibility, but countries embracing the Cold War tactic can easily fall prey to unseen traps, escalating instability.
As China’s defence posture alters spheres of influence and trade, its allies and rivals are recalibrating their own military policies.
Investors’ behaviour promises to thwart Trump’s economic agenda, just as they have forced past administrations to scramble for rescues.
Demand from China and the rest of the world ensures its impact on diplomacy and markets, but there’s no question its supremacy is waning.
Some ideas in Davos are naive, but others recognise that collective approaches and free flows of capital are steps to sustainable growth.
Assumptions about reliable sources of growth and the promise of AI must be questioned if countries hope to keep pace in 2025.
Assumptions about reliable sources of growth and the promise of AI must be questioned if countries hope to keep pace in 2025.
Expect greater isolationism in favour of bilateral, outcome-based deals with no more free rides for allies as Trump seeks capitulation, not cooperation.
Improving digital payments, especially across borders, will make every aspect of global commerce easier and more accessible.
Volatile oil prices, shaky investor confidence and prospects of interest rate increases threaten a global slowdown if Israel’s war expands.
Digital sequence information holds great promise, but disagreements on definitions and national interests are slowing progress.
The ability of central banks to pursue their main goals will depend increasingly on pursuing reforms in how they think and function.
The election of a new chief brings hope of more consensus before governments embark on a deep-sea mining spree harmful to ecosystems.
While artificial intelligence offers benefits to global finance, challenges such as cybersecurity and data biases must be confronted.
While a more conservative European Parliament will be less welcoming to China, bilateral trade deals with EU members could flow more freely.
China’s move to lend giant pandas to zoos in Washington and elsewhere is a gesture of soft power and a sign it does not want relations to reach a point of no return.
China is seizing an opportunity in the Middle East to improve its energy security and global influence, with Iraq a particular beneficiary. This push has its risks, though, and Beijing’s neutrality will face challenges in a region fraught with long-standing rivalries and competing interests.
As Bretton Woods institutions falter, nations like China are pushing for reform that reflects the global reality amid challenges such as debt distress and climate change. While the most likely scenario is marginal changes to the international monetary system, multilateral collaboration should not be underestimated.
The focus is on retooling current approaches when what debt-burdened countries need is an economic re-engineering to produce more lucrative goods and innovative ways to pay down debt using commodities.
While Sino-Arab economic ties have deepened, China is nowhere near replacing the US in the region. Beijing is trying to balance its dependence on Middle East oil with increased arms sales to the region, a development that may prove significant.
The growing influence of middle powers – those too small to be superpowers but still seen as ranking above developing countries – can shape global events. But, as long as great powers can ignore them with unilateral action or by using their veto, this influence is unlikely to shake the core of power politics.
Greater transparency, better oversight, fewer controls and an upgrading of market infrastructure are among the unprecedented changes required to lure back foreigners and address citizens’ fears.
Donald Trump’s pledge of expanded, ‘eye for an eye’ tariffs if he wins the presidency threatens a return to an era of depressed trade and growth. US firms, importers and allies should prepare for the effects of Trump’s possible re-election.
