China could have its best Winter Olympics ever while Norway is expected to win the most medals in Beijing, a data research group has predicted. Nielsen Gracenote said the hosts could secure as many as 13 medals, including six golds, which would beat China’s previous best of 11 medals and five golds at the 2010 Games in Vancouver. But analysts said the country could have even more success this month, adding a lack of data on how its athletes performed from February 2020 to this winter sports season could mask “even more medal improvement”. “During the 2020-2021 winter sport season, the only Chinese competitors were figure skaters and freestyle skier Eileen Gu, who is based in the United States. No other country has as little data for that season than the host nation,” Gracenote said. Medals are expected for the likes of Eileen Gu and Xu Mengtao in freestyle skiing, and Cai Xuetong in snowboard, with short track and speed skating also predicted to be areas of success. Unsurprisingly the Norwegians are predicted to be on top, and the data research group said the country’s athletes should surpass their record-breaking total of 39 medals at Pyeongchang four years ago, winning 44 this time around. Analysts also expect Germany and Russia Olympic Committee to have a good Games, winning 30 medals apiece, which would be a massive improvement on the 17 medals ROC won in 2018. The US and Canada are forecast to round out the top 5, with Canada’s strength in speed skating, and the US performance in freestyle skiing providing the base for their success. While Canada’s athletes produced their most successful Games four years ago, taking 29 medals to America’s 23, they have never finished higher in the table at two consecutive Winter Olympics. China though could be the surprise package, although Gracenote pointed out that host nations have a tendency to perform better than previous medal hauls might suggest. “The lack of participation by China’s athletes is currently the biggest issue for our Virtual Medal Table calculations,” the group said. “China doesn’t have a strong pedigree in winter sports, with a best return of 11 medals at previous Winter Olympics, but they have invested heavily ahead of these Games. “Normally, we would see that investment in improved results but the lack of competition has not made that possible. Our final projection of 13 medals makes sense given the results China has recorded but it may turn out to be on the low side.” In suggesting that China could win six medals, the analysts focused on expectations for the country’s performances in sports the country has previously medalled in, such as figure skating, freestyle skiing, short track, snowboard and speed skating. But in highlighting the chances of a surprise or two, Gracenote listed bobsleigh as being one discipline in which Chinese athletes could finish on the podium, particularly in the women’s monobob and two women race. “Monobob provides opportunities for China as it has never previously been an Olympic sport and the Chinese team will know the track better than anyone,” Gracenote said. “Ying Qing looks the best of China’s three potential entrants as she won a very high-quality competition in Konigsee in December 2019. “During the 2019-2020 bobsleigh season, Chinese competitors were finishing in and around the top-10 in this event. With two years of further development and the home advantage which comes with knowing the track in Beijing inside out, China could well challenge the discipline’s best competitors. Ying Qing and Du Jiani are the best of the Chinese pairs.” The lack of data surrounding the Chinese athletes, and the effect of the coronavirus pandemic, meant Gracenote had experienced “its toughest challenge yet” for its methodology of predicting Olympics success. “However, the changes our team made for Tokyo 2020 were effective, and other lessons learned along the way give us confidence in our Beijing 2022 forecast.”