OpinionPicking the peak of Hong Kong property market a futile exercise

It's the age-old question that arises whenever property prices appear to have peaked: "Should I sell my home now, take the profit, and buy back later?"

Of course, it is not always easy to identify the peak, and the strategy could backfire badly if prices continue to rise after you make the jump.

But since May, when prices first burst through the high of 1997 - with gains of 18 per cent in the year to October 7 - there has been growing talk that the time might be right to cash in gains, rent and wait for the next down cycle before re-entering the market at a capital gain on the trade.

However, the advice from the experts is: "Don't do it." For every seller that gets the timing right, many more are likely to get it wrong.

I know a couple who did not listen to the advice and jumped. In April this year, they sold the North Point Hill unit they had lived in for 18 years because they believed prices would fall after the new chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, took office in July. They pocketed HK$18 million on the sale - three times what they paid 18 years earlier.