Chinese brands to help push global smartphone upgrades to more than 1 billion this year

Global smartphone upgrades have been tipped to exceed 1 billion units for the first time this year, driven by sales in China and other large markets, as well as the wider release of products by aggressive mainland brands.

The rosy forecast from London-based Deloitte’s latest annual industry report runs counter to recent predictions, which suggested that smartphone sales were reaching a plateau as prices of these devices drop and more markets mature.

“In 2015, smartphone sales will be greater in units and revenue than those in the personal computer, television, tablet and game console sectors combined,” Hou Po, managing partner at Deloitte’s China technology, media and telecommunications industry group, said.

Deloitte estimated that more than 1 billion of the 1.4 billion smartphones sold this year would be bought as upgrades, generating about US$300 billion in sales.

Its mobile consumer survey in 14 developed markets between May and July last year found the replacement cycle for smartphones was about 12 months, shorter than tablets, laptops and TVs.

“Young consumers change devices more often based on performance, features, aesthetic design and social factors, such as peer pressure,” Hou said. “We expect smartphone upgrade volumes to continue increasing through 2018, and possibly beyond.”

Hou said the trend augurs well for the mainland’s leading smartphone brands, which are expected to boost upgrades worldwide as they release more devices on the mainland and in other emerging markets. The mainland is the world’s biggest smartphone market.