Just occasionally, the pace of technology slows enough to be able to glimpse the future.
When I moved to Beijing in 2009, the streets were full of bicycles – electric bicycles. The industry had grown so fast that the business-destroying rules of the Transport Department hadn’t caught up. It was a leapfrog in technology that otherwise wouldn’t have happened in China.
Their fast but silent progress gave them the name the “Silent Death” as they could take out pedestrians with ease. Warp speed for my e-bike on a timed section of Tsing Hua Dong Lu was 24km/h, using my handheld GPS.
Many of the components of remotely steered vehicles are already in use
Those of you who own a Tesla, or Tesla shares, look away now. Tesla made 35,000 cars last year but the stock market values it at 40 per cent of General Motors. The loss-making company has taken just US$2.5 billion to build – which makes you wonder why anyone would buy a company that costs $23 billion to buy and say $3 billion to make?
Tesla’s establishment is a seminal achievement by its chief executive Elon Musk, whose bullheaded mindset made the big boys realise that electric cars were possible. But look what is coming up.
BMW is producing the i3, GM has the Volt, Nissan the Leaf, and Ford the imaginative Electric. Tesla has done a great job designing the drive train – the combination of batteries, transmission mechanism and motors that power the vehicle - but the box around it can be built by anyone.
Even the stimulus of low oil prices is unlikely to interrupt the current. Once the reasonably-priced electric car reaches acceptable performance – say a 1,000km range (not 300), 0 to 100km/h acceleration in around 9 seconds, and charge time shortened; the cleanliness, low maintenance and silence of the vehicle will win out over internal combustion.
Tesla has a future as a supplier of its drive train components to other companies, similar to how Intel powers computers, or as a brand made by others.