The View | Brexit and Donald Trump have this one thing in common
Both have contributed to the demise of public trust in economic statistics
When did this loathing for economic data start? Maybe it’s been going on forever but more recently it has morphed into a virulent form manifest not just by simple disregard for economic information but a seeming determination to axiomatically regard all this information as being lies.
These thoughts are prompted because I happen to be in London at the moment which, like the rest of Britain, is gripped, or should that be swamped, by the ongoing referendum campaign on the UK’s continued membership of the European Union.
Every day brings with it a new slew of statistics supposedly demonstrating how much better off Britons would be if they made a rapid exit from the EU, and then there is an avalanche of figures embracing dire warnings of what would happen in the event of staying in. Not only is all this very confusing but it also fits nicely into the old maxim that describes data as lies, damn lies and statistics.
Both sides of this debate are guilty of pumping out dodgy data but my impression is that the
Remainers have the better economic figures, aided and abetted by a great phalanx of economists, business organisations and practically every other big league player with a horse in this race.
It may therefore be imagined that this overwhelming backing for staying in Europe from influential and knowledgeable people would swing the debate. However the reality is that if, anything, expert opinion is counterproductive because a mood seems to have taken hold that is, in effect, saying: “we’re fed up being lectured by the elite, we really don’t care what their figures tell us because these people always get it wrong and even when they get it right they always do so in their own interests. The more they pump out figures telling us that this or that will happen, the more we’re going to vote for the other side”.