The View | These four factors explain why Hong Kong is trapped in politics of fear and anger
Political fragmentation and radicalization are accelerating under our flawed electoral system
Across Western democracies, from the America of Donald Trump to the France of Marine Le Pen, large numbers of people are enraged. They believe globalisation, migration, and free market economics are not working in their interest.
Globalisation since 1980 has brought prosperity to the majority of the world’s population, but also left many behind. A single diagram tells it all. Dubbed “the kneeling elephant,” the horizontal axis measures the percentiles of the global income distribution, while the vertical axis shows the cumulative growth in income from 1988 to 2008.
Many voters still elect opposition politicians to office because they fear Beijing will take away their liberties
Populations in the 35th to 70th percentiles (mostly in emerging countries like China) and the 99th percentile (the world’s highly-skilled elites, many in the US) have achieved cumulative growth rates in excess of 60 per cent. But those in the 80th to 90th percentiles (mainly lower middle classes in rich nations like the US) have lost out.
Supporters of globalisation, including myself, have often failed to appreciate that while the economic consequences of globalisation have been swift, the responses of governments and civil societies to alleviate the economic and social dislocations have been incredibly slow.
Globalisation has also left a particularly big mark on Hong Kong, with many winners and plenty of losers. Hong Kong was the first place to experience the tidal waves of globalisation due to China’s opening in late 1979, but median household income has largely stagnated over the past two decades.
In the midst of this massive economic change was the political transition triggered by the restoration of sovereignty in 1997. The Basic Law states that “the previous capitalist system” shall remain unchanged for 50 years.
The majority establishment block that still exists in the legislature today was surely a deliberate political design to ensure this. There was an understanding that democratic elections would expand and provide a path to avoid a freeze in the political system, but only modest progress has been made for several reasons.
