Hong Kong braces for first interest rate hike in a year
Should the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week, as expected, watch for local banks to outperform while property and exporters struggle
Hong Kong’s struggling businesses and markets are bracing for an interest rate rise next week for the first time this year. Exporters and the property sector are set to lose out, while analysts believe that financial services firms will benefit.
“We expect banks and insurance companies to benefit as US Treasury yields rise. In the first instance, property might seem fine but as real interest rates rise, this sector would underperform quite sharply,” said Sean Darby global head of equity strategy at US investment bank Jefferies.
“Manufacturing companies might also lose their competitiveness as the US dollar rises,” he said.
With interest rates set to increase by just 0.25 percentage point however, much of the effect of this increase will be felt in markets, rather than upon businesses themselves. Nonetheless, with more rate rises expected to follow next year, how companies respond to this first increase will suggest which areas will do well next year, and which are facing more troubling times.
We expect banks and insurance companies to benefit as US Treasury yields rise.
“Hong Kong businesses are already dealing with an environment of sluggish growth and low consumption, a rise in interest rates will only to add to their problems,” said Nicholas Kwan, director of research for Hong Kong’s Trade Development Council.