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Tecent had a rough 2018, but its share price has been moving up. It reports its earnings Thursday evening Hong Kong time. Photo: Reuters

Tencent clawing its way back from cliffhanger year, winning rave analyst reviews ahead of earnings

  • Tencent reports earnings in after-market Hong Kong hours Thursday
  • Of analysts polled by Bloomberg, 55 call it a ‘buy’ while none call it a ‘sell’
Tencent

With the nail-biting heroics of one of its video games, Tencent has seen its shares hit an all-time high, slide off a cliff, then claw themselves halfway back up – all in a matter of 14 months.

Now – with new Tencent games approved to slowly roll out again after China’s industry-wide crackdown and a blizzard of new tech deals added to its huge investment portfolio – the online giant is attracting rave reviews from analysts ahead its fourth-quarter and annual results on Thursday evening Hong Kong time.

Shares of Tencent closed Tuesday in Hong Kong at HK$370 per share, inching up 0.3 per cent. That was up nearly 47 per cent from its October 30 low, when it was trading at HK$252.20.

This year alone, it is up more than 17 per cent. But it remains 22 per cent down from its all-time high on January 23, 2018 of HK$474.60.

A poll by Bloomberg shows 55 analysts call Tencent a “buy”, five a “hold” while none a “sell.”

Meanwhile, Jefferies, Citi, Goldman Sachs and HSBC Global Research have all upped their target price to more than HK$400 a share and maintained “buy” ratings. HSBC cited strong fundamentals that should help the company weather headwinds in near-term volatility.

“The market tends to be forward looking,” said Vey-sern Ling, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Thursday’s results may be weak due to gaming clampdowns, but that will be based on its performance during a rocky time rather than expectations of what’s ahead, he said.

The maker of Honour of Kings is listed in Hong Kong, with its market capitalisation at HK$3.5 trillion, and its depositary receipts trade in the US under TCEHY.

Tencent shares, measured by the relative strength index (RSI), were at 67 on Tuesday. The technical gauge signals if shares are overvalued, at 70 or above, meaning shares can be headed toward a pullback in share price, or undervalued at 30 or below.

China’s gaming industry took a beating last year as the government increased scrutiny. In March, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television (SAPPRFT) issued a nine-month freeze on new gaming licences, Tencent’s main revenue source. That weighed heavily on the share price.

But risk appetite picked up, as new gaming approvals resumed and brokerages including CSC Financial and Shenwan Hongyuan Group recommend buying the stocks.

In January, Tencent was part of the fourth batch of game makers to receive new approvals. In February it announced the release of a new mobile game, Perfect World.

That green light restored investor confidence, said Gordon Tsui, managing director of investment holding company Hantec Pacific.

“The market as a whole is treating these shares as very promising,” Tsui said.

Even if few games are approved, analysts and traders in interviews expressed confidence in Tencent’s resilience, partly due to the diversification of its business.

“Investors are realising that, even if they are not able to announce too many new titles due to regulations, Tencent’s blockbusters are number one and it is resilient. It is still managing to generate revenues,” said Jialong Shi, head of China internet equity research at Japanese investment bank Nomura.

The company has tried to offset slower growth by investing in companies like Chinese delivery service Meituan Dianping and social e-commerce company Pinduoduo. Sixteen of its portfolio companies went public last year.

It has also focused on further developing its messaging app WeChat, China’s biggest social media network. In January 2017, it introduced mini programmes: smaller versions of other stand-alone apps, to use within WeChat.

“This is the biggest reason we are positive on the company,” said Nomura’s Shi. “We like the company and we like the stock, and not just because of the online gaming. Tencent also has a few quite promising businesses like its mini programme product, which in my view is very revolutionary,” he said.

“So far it has not started monetising from it or being very proactive, but I’m sure the revenue potential is huge.”

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