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Martin Choi

Deb Price

Good day traders --
The Hang Seng Index flirted with entering a bear market today. It fell 3.7 per cent. China stocks fell as well.
Catch up on the latest below.
And, hey, are you getting your Live Stocks Blog every morning via email? You can! Don't miss out on our coverage of Hong Kong and mainland markets each trading day! If you would like the Live Stocks Blog emailed to you each morning, click here.
-- Martin Choi and Deb Price in Hong Kong 
Note: Information in this blog is on an "as is" basis and not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or otherwise; and is not investment/professional advice or services in this regard.  It is subject to our T&C.  SCMP (as defined in T&C) shall not be liable for any loss, damage and costs relating to any investments in securities or otherwise in this connection.
 


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Stocks

Hong Kong market flirts with bear territory, as other Asia benchmarks join that painful club amid coronavirus  

A worker wipes down a turnstile at the Broad Street subway station in New York after more cases of coronavirus were confirmed in the Big Apple. Photo: Reuters

Business

The Hang Seng Index flirted with entering a bear market today. It closed at its worst level in nearly three years. Watch this number: 24,125.99. If it closes below that Friday -- as it was close to doing at one point today -- Hong Kong's benchmark will be in a bear market -- closing 20 per cent lower since a recent high -- for the first time since August 21, 2015.   


China stock market

Hang Seng Index

Tencent Holdings

Coronavirus pandemic: All stories

Live

Morning thoughts from Stephen Innes, market strategist at currency trading platform AxiCorp:
“The market is faced with two highly uncertain bearish shocks in the form of an unholy Covid-19 economic catastrophe in Italy, and most of Europe, compounded by a dizzying oil price downdraft with the apparent outcome a sharp price sell-off across all assets.
“Indeed, nothing is immune from this insidious virus. Still, the market may not be yet pricing in a worst-case scenario from this double whammy risk beat down.
“Vacationers and business travellers continue to cancel trips, and social distancing is suddenly a term in common usage. So needless to say, all eyes remain focused on travel bans around the globe.
“That said, everyone knows the number of reported cases in the US will skyrocket soon because proper testing has begun. Is it fully priced? I am not sure, but I doubt?
“However, there is an increasing probability that current containment measures in Italy might become a necessary way of life across much of Europe and regionally in the US too, which could swamp the US economy.
“It feels like we’re doing little more than moving from one air pocket to the next while the less turbulent air in between is getting supported by the thought of fiscal input. This will eventually trigger an even more aggressive budgetary response globally, but time is of the essence.  
“The first order of business is that in the US, there needs to be comprehensive testing to arrive at a credible tally of cases, without which we have no way to quantify the effectiveness of the next point.
“That is, there needs to be a policy response, draconian or not, that is perceived as sufficient to stop the virus from spreading further and mitigate economic damage. Both could easily take another few weeks if not months. The question is, can we stand another week let along another month in Covid19 purgatory with the markets on the precipice of a cliff edge,” Innes writes this morning. 
His take on President Xi Jinping’s visit this week to Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus crisis:
“[T]he markets are finding a bit of support in Asia and a couple of reasons why. China’s case counts are dropping, and people are slowly coming back to work. But there’s also some noticeable price front running in early Asia as after President Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan; Traders are viewing this is a signal that the mother of all stimulus programs could be announced soon. My working theory has always been that fiscal stimulus will come after things get better in China because there is no point stimulating an economy when nobody is at work. With everyone back to work, the time is about right for the Beijing Bazooka.”
-- Deb Price    


Is the ‘Beijing Bazooka’ coming? Thoughts from Stephen Innes

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK), China’s largest hotpot chain, reopened 85 stores in 15 mainland cities on Thursday, after suspending all of its nearly 600 outlets for more than a month as the Covid-19 outbreak unfolded.
The 15 cities are mostly second or third-tier cities, smaller than metropolises like Beijing or Shanghai. They included Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Qingdao.
The company suspended all of its 550 stories located in mainland China on January 26 to prevent the epidemic from spreading further. It launched a home delivery service in mid-February to counter some of the negative effects of the suspension.
-- Yujing Liu   


Haidilao reopens 15 per cent of stores in China

State-owned China Unicom (0762 HK) on Wednesday announced that Li Guohua retired from his post as the company president and executive director.
In a late filing to the stock exchange, China Unicom said Li retired “due to his age”.
Before joining China Unicom, Li was the chairman of the Postal Savings Bank of China.
Under his watch, the Beijing-based bank made its US$7.3 billion debut in Hong Kong in 2016,  at the time one of the world’s biggest for two years.
On Wednesday, China Unicom’s shares closed about 3.5 per cent lower to HK$5.59 each.
-- Cheryl Arcibal    


China Unicom president retires due to age

Here's what we are watching this morning:
US overnight markets/ What futures foretell
--The S&P 500 slid 4.9 per cent, the Nasdaq dropped 4.7 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 5.9 per cent.
-- Hong Kong futures slipped 2 per cent, while the FTSE China A50 futures shed 1.2 per cent 
IPO debuts: Sunlight Technology (1950 HK); Shandong Dongyue Organosilicon Material (300821 CH); Jiangsu Jujie Microfiber Technology Group (300819 CH); Ximei Resources (9936 HK) 
Economic statistics: None to note
Central Bank action: None to note
Earnings: AIA Group (1299 HK); Swire Pacific (19 HK); Swire Properties (1972 HK)


Morning guidance

The Hang Seng fell 2.7 per cent to 24,541.74.
It is on track for its second straight day of falls in what has been a streak of volatile trading due to the virus’ spread around the globe. 
-- Deb Price    


Hang Seng falls 2.7 per cent

The Shanghai Composite Index opened 1 per cent lower to 2,939.33.
The CSI 300 gauge of large-caps listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen was down 1.2 per cent to 3,981.78.
The tech-focused ChiNext was down 2 per cent to 2,059.87.
-- Martin Choi


China markets down at open

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was down 2.2 per cent. 
Seoul's Kospi slipped 3.4 per cent and the tech-heavy Kosdaq shed 3.9 per cent.
Australia's S&P/ASX200 was last trading 4.3 per cent lower and New Zealand's S&P/NZX50 fell 2.5 per cent.
-- Martin Choi


Asia markets also down

As markets prepared to open in Hong Kong and China, US President Donald Trump announced in a news conference he was suspending all travel from Europe to America as Washington’s latest measure to contain the spread of the coronavirus epidemic.
“After consulting with our top government health professionals, I have decided to take several strong but necessary actions to protect the health and well being of all Americans to keep new cases from entering our shores,” Trump said In a televised address to the nation, and to a worldwide audience.
“We will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days, the new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight,” he said, adding that the suspension will not apply to Britain.
US futures fell.
-- Deb Price   


Trump suspends travel from continental Europe

All 50 constituent stocks on the Hang Seng Index fell, led by a more than 3 per cent drop in commerce and industry stocks.  
Stocks fell hard in the broad Hong Kong market.
Tencent (700 HK) fell 3 per cent to HK$366.80, while Alibaba (9988 HK), the e-commerce giant and owner of the South China Morning Post, fell 3.3 per cent to HK$190.50.
Chinese oil giant CNOOC (883 HK) dropped 4.5 per cent.
  Casino operator Sands China (1928 HK) plunged 4.2 per cent.
-- Deb Price      


Sands China, Tencent, Alibaba see falls of at least 3 per cent

Four companies started trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange today.
Apparel label and trim products maker Cirtek Holdings (1433 HK) opened 35.6 per cent lower at HK$0.16 against a listing price of HK$0.25.
Mainland chemicals manufacturer Sunlight Technology Holdings (1950 HK) fell 3.8 per cent to HK$0.50 from a listing price of HK$0.52.
Meanwhile, Singapore-based construction firm Wei Yuan Holdings (1343 HK) shot up 45.8 per cent to HK$0.70 from a listing price of HK$0.48.
Ximei Resources Holding (9936 HK) dropped 10.3 per cent to HK$2 against a listing price of HK$2.23. It is a producer of metallurgical materials such as tantalum and niobium in China.
 
Four companies started trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange today. They are Cirtek Holdings (1433 HK), Sunlight Technology Holdings (1950 HK), Wei Yuan Holdings (1343 HK) and Ximei Resources Holding Limited(9936 HK).@SCMPNews @scmpbusiness pic.twitter.com/6ulQ7Vatrm
  — Kathleen Magramo (@kathmaemagramo) March 12, 2020
-- Kathleen Magramo


Wei Yuan Holdings shoots up on debut in Hong Kong

The National Basketball Association season was suspended "until further notice" after a Utah Jazz player tested positive for the Covid-19, according to an online statement.
Much of China follows the NBA.
-- Martin Choi


US pro basketball league suspends its season after a player tested positive

The Hang Seng dropped 4.23 per cent on Monday, rose 1.41 per cent on Tuesday, and fell 0.63 per cent on Wednesday.
Last week, it began these wild moves: On Friday, it dropped 2.32 per cent, while it rose 2.08 per cent last Thursday.
The Hang Seng is down 3.7 per cent to 24,287.19, after pulling up a bit.
-- Martin Choi


Wild week for the Hang Seng

AIA (1299 HK) said it expects “a temporary but significant disruption in the near term” in its business.
“[During] the first quarter of 2020, a number of our markets are facing headwinds from the lower interest rate environment and the impact of COVID-19,” it said, referring to the coronavirus, which has over 80,000 confirmed cases in China causing more than 3,000 deaths.
The World Health Organization has officially declared the virus a pandemic, as the pathogen has now spread to 114 countries causing more than 4,000 deaths.
“AIA is closely monitoring the developing situation. We have not seen any unusual patterns of claims to date in mainland China,” it said in the announcement.
AIA Group, the largest listed life insurance company in Asia Pacific, reported a below-estimate net profit for 2019 at US$6.65 billion, doubling from a year ago and beating the US$ 6.29 billion estimate polled by Bloomberg among seven analysts.
In 2018 full year net profit stood at US$3.16 billion.
Revenue  was up 30 per cent to US$47.24 billion from US$36.3 billion. Basic earnings per share was at 55 US cents, below analysts’ estimate at 57.5 US cents.
The share price of AIA  plunged 5.1 percent to HK$68.35 in a falling market.
-- Georgina Lee


AIA expects ‘significant disruption’ to Q1 business amid COVID-19; 2019 net profit ahead of estimates

Noteworthy stocks:
Alibaba (9988 HK) has pulled up a bit. It is down 3.4 per cent to HK$190.30.
Tencent (700 HK) has also pulled up a bit. It is down 3.4 per cent at HK$365.60.
Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) fell 5 per cent to HK$90.90.
Chinese oil player CNOOC (883 HK) extended its losses, and was down 7.3 per cent at HK$7.90.
-- Deb Price


Hang Seng Index now down 3.7 per cent at 24,301.69

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was down 5.2 per cent. 
Seoul's Kospi slipped 4.1 per cent and the tech-heavy Kosdaq shed 4.5 per cent.
Australia's S&P/ASX200 was last trading 5.8 per cent lower and New Zealand's S&P/NZX50 fell 4.6 per cent.
-- Martin Choi


Asia-Pacific stocks sliding

“The markets are getting jittery about what will happen next. It might be a global recession. It’s speeding up in that direction,” said VC Asset Management’s Louis Tse.
Traders are very worried about the pandemic around the world, and human routines have been disrupted severely, he added.
“We’re right at the middle of the woods. We won’t be outside of the woods anytime soon. This morning we were down more than 1,000 points at one point,” he said.
The Hang Seng was last trading down 920.91 points or 3.7 per cent to 24,310.70.
“The markets still want to test lower levels in a very much oversold situation,” said Tse. “When we test a new low, we have to test it a few times. Under this situation, we might have to test it five or six times.”
-- Martin Choi


Right at the middle of the woods, may test lower levels a few more times, says VC Asset Management’s Louis Tse

SoHo China (HK 410) confirmed it is in talks with overseas financial investors about a potential transaction. Earlier news reports said Blackstone wants to take it private.
The Chinese developer focusing office properties, said in an announcement issued late Wednesday, that “the company wishes to make a clarification to such media reports and confirm that the company has been in discussions with overseas financial investors to explore the possibility of a strategic partnership (‘the Potential Transaction’), which may or may not lead to a general offer for the issued share capital of the Company (‘Shares’).”
The company said no decision has been made on whether to proceed with the potential deal.
The US private equity group Blackstone will pay US$ 4 billion or HK$6 per share, almost double Soho China’s average price of HK$3.03 in January, to take the company private, according to Reuters’ report.
Shares of Soho China will resumed trading today after being halted on Wednesday morning.
Shares jumped 37.58 per cent on news reports it is being taken private by Blackstone before trading suspended.
Today, shares have advanced 3.4 per cent to HK$4.24.
-- Pearl Liu   


SoHo gains as it confirms potential transaction; earlier reports said Blackstone wants to take it private

The Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.3 per cent to 2,928.80 at the lunch break.
The CSI 300 gauge of large-caps listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen was down 1.7 per cent to 3958.57.
The tech-focused ChiNext was down 2.3 per cent to 2,054.24.5G-related stocks shed 1.2 per cent, while face mask and flu-related stocks slid 1.7 per cent.
Apple AirPod maker Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) slid 1.4 per cent at 43.35 yuan. The world’s most valuable liquor distiller Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) slipped 1.5 per cent to 1,141.08 yuan.
-- Martin Choi


China stocks will start from a hole in afternoon trading

The shares of Chinese airlines fell by 3.4 per cent on average, as the coronavirus outbreak has prompted further travel restrictions in the US and Europe.
Chinese airlines reported a combined loss of 20.96 billion yuan (US$3 billion) in February, as the Covid-19 epidemic spread and hit travel demand, according to a Reuters report, citing the aviation regulator. China’s overall aviation industry recorded a loss of 24.59 billion yuan for the month, Zhang Qing, an official with Civil Aviation Administration of China, told a press conference.
China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), the largest Chinese carrier by fleet, fell as much as 6.2 per cent to HK$4.05 in Hong Kong while its yuan-denominated A shares (600029 CH) declined by as much as 3.7 per cent to 5.96 yuan in Shanghai.
Air China (753 HK), the country's flag carrier, fell 4.4 per cent to HK$6.26 in Hong Kong, dropping 4 per cent in Shanghai.
Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK), Hong Kong's hometown carrier, fell by as much as 5.3 per cent to HK$9.64 after it warned Wednesday of losses in the coming financial year.
-- Eugene Tang 


China airlines fall as Trump further restricts travel to US from Europe

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng briefly dipped into bear territory on September 10, 2018, when it fell by 1.9 per cent to an intraday low of 26,543.29 points in afternoon trading. 
It was a 20 per cent decline from a record high in January 2018, ending a 23-month bull run that drove the index up by more than 80 per cent.
It clawed back some losses by the close, ending down 1.33 per cent to 26,613.42.
It wiped off US$975.6 billion in market capitalisation since January 26, 2018, when it closed at an all-time high of 33,154.12. 
Our piece here.
The last time the Hang Seng ended in a bear market was on August 21, 2015, when it sank 1.5 per cent to 22,409.62, declining 21 per cent from a peak of 28,442.75 on April 28.
In China, the last time the Shanghai Composite Index entered a bear market was on June 26, 2018, when it fell 20 per cent from a peak of 3,559.46 on January 24, to its lowest level in two years.
The index dropped 0.5 per cent on June 26 2018 to close at 2,884.51.
Chinese stocks had lost about US$1.6 trillion in total value since January. Our piece here. 
-- Louise Moon and Martin Choi


Hong Kong and China’s last encounter with bear markets was in 2018

The Hang Seng was down 3.8 per cent to 24,269.06, or 962.55 points lower, at the lunch break.
  Tencent (700 HK) lost 4.1 per cent to HK$363.
  Alibaba (9988 HK) fell 3.7 per cent to HK$189.70.
-- Martin Choi


Hang Seng down 3.8 per cent at lunch break

The Hang Seng was down 3.4 per cent to 24,371.86 after the lunch break.The Shanghai Composite Index slid 1.5 per cent to 2,924.45.
The Hang Seng briefly dipped into bear territory when it fell to an intraday low of 24,117.94 in morning trading. 
For it to end in a bear market, it would need to close below 24,125.92. 
-- Martin Choi


Hong Kong would be in bear market if it closes below 24,125.92 -- watch out!

Moscow’s decision will determine how long oil prices remain at current levels, says Jean-Pierre Durante, head of applied research at Pictet Wealth Management.
The Brent price could bounce towards the US$40-45 range if Russia comes rapidly to the OPEC negotiating table, but this scenario seems unlikely, said Durante. 
“The early signals coming from Moscow are not very encouraging,” he added.
The more plausible scenario is to see the Brent price fluctuate between US$30-US$40 for a couple of months, he said.
“With time, oil prices at these levels could reduce oil production, notably from the US. Demand could also resume as quarantine measures are lifted in Europe and the US,” he said.
If this happens, the Brent price should be back to a US$40-50 range in the third quarter, he added.
He expects China’s demand to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day year-on-year, while global demand would fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in the first quarter.
-- Martin Choi


Brent oil to fluctuate between US$30-40 for a couple of months unless Moscow comes to table, says Pictet Wealth Management’s Durante

Chinese car manufacturer BAIC Motor Corporation (1958 HK) was upgraded to ‘buy’ as its valuation was turning attractive, according to Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Kelvin Lau. 
Lau said the car manufacturer was likely to see decent sales volume recovery in the second quarter.
Its target price was lowered from HK$4.40 to HK$4.30.
It was trading 2.9 per cent lower this afternoon in a falling market, at HK$3.38.
-- Martin Choi


Daiwa upgrades BAIC Motor to ‘buy’

Daiwa Capital Markets lowered the target price of Chinese food delivery service platform Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) from HK$135 to HK$125. But Daiwa reiterated it as a “buy.”
The company was likely to return to loss territory in the first half of 2020, according to analyst John Choi.
It was down 5 per cent at HK$90.90.
-- Martin Choi


Meituan reiterated as ‘buy’ at Daiwa Capital Markets, but target price lowered

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was down 3.8 per cent. 
Seoul's Kospi slipped 4.2 per cent and the tech-heavy Kosdaq shed 5 per cent.
Australia's S&P/ASX200 closed down 7.4 per cent -- the biggest fall since October 10, 2008 when it closed down 8.3 per cent.
New Zealand's S&P/NZX50 fell 5 per cent.
-- Martin Choi


Australia S&P/ASX200 closes down 7.4 per cent -- its biggest fall since 2008

China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) was reiterated as a ‘buy’ by Daiwa Capital Markets, though its target price was lowered from HK$35.50 to HK$32.60 due to inventory issues from Covid-19 in the first half of 2020.
It was down 2.7 per cent to HK$27.05.
-- Martin Choi


Mengniu reiterated as ‘buy’ at Daiwa, target price lowered due to challenges from Covid-19

The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.5 per cent to 2,923.49.
The Shenzhen Component Index slipped 2.3 per cent to 10,941.01.
The CSI 300 gauge of large caps listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen slid 1.9 per cent to 3,950.91.
The tech-focused ChiNext shed 2.6 per cent to 2,045.93.5G-related stocks shed 0.6 per cent, while facemask and flu-related stocks plunged 3 per cent.
Liquor distiller Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) declined 1.7 per cent to 1,138.50 yuan. Meanwhile, Apple AirPod maker Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) was down 1.7 per cent to 43.23 yuan.
-- Martin Choi


Kweichow Moutai and Luxshare Precision among day’s losers in China’s markets

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 closed down 4.4 per cent. 
Seoul's Kospi slipped 3.9 per cent and the tech-heavy Kosdaq shed 5.4 per cent.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 2.9 per cent.
-- Martin Choi


Asia stocks close down

Economic activity in China picked up strongly in March, and that is expected to accelerate after President Xi’s visit to Wuhan on March 10, which signaled the virus was well contained, according to Qian Wan, China economist at Bloomberg Economics.
Bloomberg’s China Economic Recovery Index (CERI), a new big-data based indicator, showed that 70 per cent of the economy was restored by March 9, up from the February average of 36 per cent and just 27 per cent on February 1.
Bloomberg Economics expects the Chinese economy to recover to “mostly normal” by the end of March.
-- Martin Choi 


China’s economy ‘70 per cent back to normal’ according to Bloomberg Economics

Chinese carmakers plunged after official data shows the country's February car sales plunged by 79 per cent to merely 310,000 units, the industry's worst monthly performance since record started in 2006.
In January, car sales declined by 19 per cent to 1.9 million units.
Geely Automobile Holdings (0175 HK), which is owned by the acquirer of Sweden's Volvo, fell 4.2 per cent to HK$12.84.
BYD (1211 HK), the country's largest electric vehicle maker, plummeted by 6.1 per cent to HK$41.25.
-- Yujing Liu 


Car stocks plummet on worst month for China’s car industry

Swire Pacific (19 HK), whose businesses span aviation, real estate and offshore marine services, reported a 62 per cent drop of profit to HK$9 billion on revenue of HK$85.65 billion, citing social unrest in Hong Kong and global trade tensions as weights on the company’s business. 
The group, which traces its history in Hong Kong in 1816, said the decrease was mainly due to the poor financial performance of Cathay Pacific Airways, which reported a drop of profit last year and a potential loss in the first half this year on Wednesday. 
Swire Pacific’s attributable share of Cathay Pacific’s 2019 profit was HK$761 million, down 28 per cent from HK$1,056 million in 2018.
Swire Pacific said it would pay a final dividend of HK$1.65 per share, in par with that in 2018.
Swire Pacific is also the parent firm of Swire Properties (1972 HK), which operates shopping centres including Pacific Place in Admiralty, which has been affected by the protests.
Swire Properties’ underlying profit, excluding revaluation gains on investment properties, in 2019 rose to HK$24.13 billion from HK$10.15 billion a year earlier.
Swire Properties will pay a final dividend of HK$0.59 per share.
Swire Pacific is down 3.8 per cent to HK$62.70, while Swire Properties fell 3.9 per cent to HK$22.15.
-- Pearl Liu     


Swire Pacific falls, as profit drops 62 per cent on unrest, trade war

The Hang Seng Index fell 3.7 per cent or 922.54 points to 24,309.07. 
That pushed it close to entering a bear market. It would need to close below 24,125.92 to join that painful -- and growing -- club, as the coronavirus upends the economies of the US and other countries around the globe.
It was the lowest close for the Hang Seng since April 24, 2017, when it closed at 24,139.48.
Noteworthy stock moves included:
Tencent (700 HK) closed down 3.9 per cent at HK$363.60, while Alibaba (9988 HK), parent company of the South China Morning Post, declined 4.2 per cent to HK$188.80.
Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) tumbled 5.1 per cent to HK$90.80.
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) plunged 8.3 per cent to HK$7.81, on expectations oil demand will be hit by Trump’s move to further restrict travel from Europe.
-- Martin Choi


China National Offshore Oil Corporation plunges 8.3 per cent; Hang Seng tumbles 3.7 per cent

Hong Kong stocks will remain very volatile, possibly for months, said Kenny Wen, wealth management strategist at Everbright Sun Hung Kai. He advises investors to hold gold, which he sees going up to US$1,900 this year. He likes 5G stocks. “Whenever stock prices have a correction, it is a good time to accumulate for long-term investors.”   
Check out what Wen has to say today about what investors should and shouldn’t do, and what’s ahead for gold, in this SCMP studio interview. 
 

