Demand for international travel to sink 80 per cent this year as coronavirus pandemic crushes tourism, says Euromonitor

Demand for international travel could fall by as much as 80 per cent this year, and recovery to pre-crisis levels could be stretched into 2023 if the global economy sinks further amid a worsening coronavirus pandemic, according to Euromonitor International’s worst-case projections.

This means that the number of trips travellers take this year will dramatically fall to 311 million from 1.48 billion trips in 2019, and should a second wave take place, the demand for trips could fall to 232 million in 2021, the market research company said.

The forecasts are based on the assumption that social distancing will have to be observed much longer in the event of the pandemic lingering longer than expected. It also takes into account the possibility of the global economy contracting between 8 and 11.5 per cent, global infection rates of between 20 and 50 per cent and a mortality rate ranging from 1.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent.

The best-case forecast, meanwhile, predicts a 23 per cent decline in tourism this year, with recovery likely to begin in 2022.

“The baseline assumptions expect recovery by 2022 for tourism demand,” said Caroline Bremner, head of travel at Euromonitor. “This is based on a number of factors including the development of the disease in terms of cases and deaths, the subsequent social distancing in place, as well as the economic impacts. For the more pessimistic scenarios, social distancing remains in place longer.”