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Los Angeles County firefighters keep watch on the Bobcat Fire as it burns through the night in Juniper Hills, California, on September 19. Spatial finance can improve the quality of predictions about the impact of climate change, allowing the financial sector to conduct a more accurate assessment of environmental risks. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
William Blair and Emilios Avgouleas
William Blair and Emilios Avgouleas

How spatial finance can boost the climate change fight through better environmental predictions

  • Spatial finance can improve the quality of predictions about the impact of climate change, allowing a more accurate assessment of environmental risks
  • Improved evidence and monitoring will make it practical for investors and creditors to detect breaches of biodiversity covenants and enforce compliance
While the Covid-19 pandemic might be, in itself, the product of human interference with nature, it is not the only grave challenge society faces today. The environment is severely affected by man-made climate change, resulting in loss of biodiversity and emerging shortages in food production and availability of fresh water.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals, alongside the Paris Agreement on climate change, form the core of global strategies to promote sustainable development and social growth over time. Achieving sustainability requires vast sums to be invested in the green economy, and sustainable finance in the form of investing directly and through financial-sector lending and insurance has become critical.

Sustainable finance extends to such products and initiatives as green bonds and corporate investment that seek to promote societal and sustainability impacts. How can we identify and verify such impacts? This is an important question both in economic and legal terms.

It is necessary in building procurement systems to counter climate change. It is fundamental in assessing the performance of financial instruments in terms of sustainability impact. Assurances, however well-meant, are not enough. In a characteristic example of how technology can improve life under certain circumstances, an emerging scientific discipline known as spatial finance comes to close that gap.

Spatial finance combines Earth observation and remote sensing via aerial means – including satellite and drone imaging – with machine learning and financial analysis. Since spatial finance can improve the quality of predictions about the impact of climate change on land mass and habitats, coastal, rural and metropolitan areas as well as river and sea pollution levels, it allows the financial sector to conduct a more accurate assessment of environmental risks.

For example, damage to insurers and bank lenders because of floods, whether natural or man-made as in Brazil’s 2019 Brumadinho dam disaster, can now be quantified with accuracy. This way, periodic stress testing of bank lending portfolios against climate change risk can become more accurate and credible.

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System has fully recognised the positive implications of spatial observation and analysis for financial supervisors, incorporating climate risk into ongoing prudential supervision.

Similarly, the emerging science can boost detection and enforcement of breaches of environmental protection laws. It can also augment the wider role of the law in implementing sustainability, for example through the contracts that give effect to green financing arrangements and related insurance arrangements.

This is a key development to which the scientific and legal communities have not paid sufficient attention. Naturally, the development and funding of projects with an immediate environmental impact such as mines, roads, dams, major building developments and other infrastructure will be greatly affected.

Most financing today includes environmental, social and governance obligations in the contractual documentation. There are various ways of enforcing these obligations, such as non-compliance resulting in a higher interest rate in some green loans.

More generally, a breach of an environmental promise or covenant can lead to legal claims by which the financier declares an event of default and calls in the lending, bringing the contract to an end. This is an acrimonious route that could lead to years of litigation.

The problem is essentially the same one that faces financial supervisors – metrics, quantification and monitoring. How do you know if the obligations are being complied with? In some contracts, there is self-reporting and in others some kind of external review, but this is difficult and could lead to disputes.

In contrast, spatial technology can be instrumental in measuring the footprint of new roads and railways, particularly in environmentally sensitive areas, making it practical for investors and creditors to detect breaches of biodiversity covenants in real time. The supply of evidence via spatial technology could enable funders to suspend funding until the contractors offer full compliance.

Spatial finance offers the potential to develop a concrete certification system for the environmental impact of a project by embedding legal technology mechanisms into the financial contract. Compliance with the environmental covenants of, for example, a green loan can be reliably monitored during the lifetime of the loan. Machine learning techniques can provide assessments shifting the burden of proof to the contracting counterparty.

Is this system currently feasible? With the advent of so-called smart contracts, which are self-executing, the answer seems to be positive. There are risks of increased surveillance, which are coming under increasing attention, yet climate change risks are also pressing. It is therefore a matter of checks and balances coupled with a sense of urgency.

In his UN General Assembly speech, President Xi Jinping said China would help set up a UN global geospatial knowledge and innovation centre and an International Research Centre of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals. Spatial finance seems to fall squarely within this area of policy priority. It could be a vital step on the road to realising the concept that clear waters and green mountains are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver.

Sir William Blair is Professor of Banking Law and Ethics at the Centre for Commercial Law Studies at Queen Mary University of London and formerly presiding judge of the Commercial Court of the UK’s High Court. Emilios Avgouleas is chair in International Banking Law & Finance at the University of Edinburgh

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Making sure its green
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