Goldman joins ranks of Centaline, Cushman and Morgan Stanley in forecasting rise in Hong Kong home prices this year
- City’s residential property prices have already risen 4 per cent year-to-date and Goldman says it expects a 5 per cent rise for this year
- Opening of border between Hong Kong and mainland China to benefit sales of luxury flats, Central office take-up and retail premises’ rents
“Given high property prices, very low interest rates but an improving economy, we expect gradual property price increases in line with household income growth for the residential market,” the bank said in a report led by analyst Gurpreet Singh Sahi. “We believe [an] easing of Covid-19-related border restrictions between Hong Kong and mainland China would benefit the sale of luxury residential flats, Central office take-up and retail premises’ rent.”
The city’s residential property prices have already risen 4 per cent year-to-date, and Goldman said in its June 4 report that it expected a 5 per cent rise for this year. Prices could rise by another 5 per cent in 2022, as the border opens up, before easing to a 3 per cent gain in 2023.
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As far as retail and industrial property was concerned, the bank expected a recovery of 5 per cent this year after a “painful” 2019 and 2020. “We believe prices have corrected meaningfully and that retail sales are rising in Hong Kong and mainland China. Year-to-date prices have recovered post their steep correction over the last two years,” Goldman said.