China’s coal imports seen shrinking by almost half as carbon, energy policies hurt producers in Indonesia and Australia, study shows

China’s coal imports will shrink by as much as 49 per cent by 2025 due to its decarbonisation drive and policies to boost domestic energy security, according to a new study by the Australian National University (ANU).

These two factors are expected to trim its purchase of thermal coal, mostly from Indonesia and Australia, to between 95 and 130 megatonnes (Mt) by 2025 from 185 in 2019, researchers at ANU said in an April 20 report. Coking coal imports are expected to fall as much as 32 per cent to 23Mt over the same period, it added.

Beijing’s plans “signal the end for Australia’s current coal export boon,” said Dr Jorrit Gosen, lead author of the report. “And this isn’t going to happen far off into the future; it is imminent.”

China is the world’s largest carbon emitter and importer of coal for power generation and steelmaking. It announced a plan in 2019 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060 and aims to peak emissions by 2030. It will also phase out coal use from 2026.

Strengthening domestic energy supply is a top priority for China’s policymakers, after power shortage in several provinces last year and turbulence in the global energy market. China last month unveiled a plan to boost coal output to 12 million tonnes per day, effectively raising its annual national capacity by 6 per cent. It is also boosting infrastructure to get more coal from domestic mines to its steel and power plants.

The ANU researchers said its modelling showed that under a “business as usual” scenario, which represents a minimal level of ambition to meet currently announced policy targets, China could trim its thermal coal imports by 29 per cent between 2019 and 2025.