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China’s 2025 hydrogen targets trail market trajectory as Beijing eyes more innovation, technology breakthroughs, experts say

  • The NDRC milestones for 2025 trail current market trajectory for fuel-cell vehicles and ‘green hydrogen’ production capacity
  • Modest targets underscore need for innovations and technology breakthroughs in key components along the value chain, says Wong of Ballard Power Systems

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China is taking a cautious step to raise its game in long term hydrogen development plan. Photo: Shuttershock
Yujie Xue
China’s targets under its hydrogen energy blueprint appear to trail current growth trajectory, suggesting the nation is cautious about overstretching itself in areas that still require major technological breakthroughs, experts said.
The country envisaged it would have at least 50,000 hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) on the road by 2025 under its 2035 development plan unveiled in March by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). It had 8,000 FCEVs in 2020, which could exceed 77,900 before 2025 at the current pace of deployment.

The economic planning agency also aimed to produce 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes of “green hydrogen” annually by 2025. S&P Global Data forecast a capacity of 300,000 tonnes by 2023.

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“The numbers reflect the current forecast of the hydrogen infrastructure readiness to support vehicle deployments,” said Alfred Wong, managing director for Asia-Pacific at Ballard Power Systems, a Canadian fuel cell developer. They also show “the need for further technological innovations and breakthroughs in key components to building up a sufficient domestic value chain.”

China is the world’s largest hydrogen producer, churning out 33 million tonnes annually. Around 80 per cent is generated using coal and natural gas, and the balance as a by-product of industrial production, with “green hydrogen” only accounting for a fraction, according to the NDRC.

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