China’s targets under its hydrogen energy blueprint appear to trail current growth trajectory, suggesting the nation is cautious about overstretching itself in areas that still require major technological breakthroughs, experts said. The country envisaged it would have at least 50,000 hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) on the road by 2025 under its 2035 development plan unveiled in March by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). It had 8,000 FCEVs in 2020, which could exceed 77,900 before 2025 at the current pace of deployment. The economic planning agency also aimed to produce 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes of “green hydrogen” annually by 2025. S&P Global Data forecast a capacity of 300,000 tonnes by 2023. “The numbers reflect the current forecast of the hydrogen infrastructure readiness to support vehicle deployments,” said Alfred Wong, managing director for Asia-Pacific at Ballard Power Systems, a Canadian fuel cell developer. They also show “the need for further technological innovations and breakthroughs in key components to building up a sufficient domestic value chain.” China is the world’s largest hydrogen producer, churning out 33 million tonnes annually. Around 80 per cent is generated using coal and natural gas, and the balance as a by-product of industrial production, with “green hydrogen” only accounting for a fraction, according to the NDRC. Domestic hydrogen demand, currently estimated at 20 million tonnes annually, will reach 35 million tonnes by 2030 and 60 million tonnes by 2050, according to forecasts by the China Hydrogen Alliance. What is green hydrogen and can it help China meet its carbon goals? The cost of producing green hydrogen from the electrolysis of water with renewable energy is about four times more than by coal gasification. The high costs of other steps in the hydrogen supply chain – including storage, transportation, and refuelling – also need to fall to win wider market adoption, Wong added. Technical breakthroughs in key components should also be accelerated as China is still mostly relying on the import of basic materials for green hydrogen production, as well as catalysts, electrolysis, carbon paper and high strength carbon fibre, he said. China aims to expand its domestic “green hydrogen” production capacities and associated infrastructure, unlike Japan and South Korea which rely on imports of hydrogen and its derivatives to achieve their long-term decarbonisation targets. Thus, China is taking a cautious approach to prioritising self-sufficiency and developing domestic supply chains under its blueprint, said Ankit Sachan, Asia hydrogen analyst at S&P Global Platts Analytics. “Beyond 2025, China intends to develop more comprehensive supply systems, and demand applications by 2030, and by 2035 significant hydrogen demand is expected from sectors such as transportation, energy storage, and industry,” said Sachan.