Emissions across the country, which peaked last summer, have been declining since the third quarter of last year, as real estate construction activities weakened and renewable power generation showed strong growth, Myllyvirta said.

“Starting from late March … the main driver [of reduced emission] has been [the government’s] harsh Covid-19 control policies,” he wrote in a blog published by UK-based website Carbon Brief, which covers climate science and energy policy. “The second quarter of 2022 appears highly likely to extend the trend of falling emissions – even as the construction sector slowdown bottoms out – due to the impact of Covid lockdowns becoming much more pronounced.”

China’s power consumption fell 1.3 per cent year on year in April, narrowing growth for the year’s first four months to 3.4 per cent, according to non-profit national trade association China Electricity Council. That compared with a 5.5 per cent growth in the second half of last year and a 16 per cent increase in the first half.

Weak electricity demand was particularly apparent in construction-related heavy industries, where the building materials sector recorded a 3.2 per cent usage decline in the first four months, while the steel sector saw a 2.7 per cent fall in the same period.

At the same time, an ongoing transition towards cleaner energy in the nation’s power generation sector helped shrink its carbon footprint.

China’s hydropower output grew 14.3 per cent in the first four months this year, while that of nuclear power increased 5.4 per cent and wind power rose 10.7 per cent. By contrast, coal power generation recorded a 1.8 per cent decline in the same period.

While carbon dioxide emission levels in China are trending downward this quarter, the outlook for the second half remains unknown.

“Whether the current fall in emissions results in another rebound depends mainly on three factors: how large is the infrastructure construction programme this time; will the real estate sector inflate again; and how fast does clean energy investment grow,” Myllyvirta said.

China had twice recorded a period of stable or falling carbon emissions in the past decade, according to Myllyvirta. This occurred during the construction and industrial slowdown from 2013 to 2016, and in the first quarter of 2020, when the first wave of Covid-19 infections prompted the government to implement lockdowns in various cities and communities.

When the country emerged from those lockdowns in 2020, it led to a strong rebound in infrastructure construction and manufacturing activities. The level of emissions that year ended up surpassing 2019’s.

While the risk of more construction activities leading to higher emissions is there, stringent Covid-19 control measures this year have brought a profound impact and more uncertainties on China’s economy, according to Li Shuo, senior climate and energy policy officer for Greenpeace East Asia.

For China to decarbonise its economy, Li said the country needs to generate higher growth from low-carbon service sectors, which have been hit hard by the lockdowns, and overhaul its heavy industries. “Some of the service sectors are disproportionately affected by Covid,” he said. “That’s a source of concern for China’s long-term decarbonisation.”