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Cryptocurrency buzz is not enough to lead recovery of Hong Kong’s battered commercial property market, analysts say
- Despite its early promise, the segment is unlikely to become the ultimate saviour of the city’s sagging retail property market, according to analysts
- The dramatic collapse of FTX in November sent shockwaves through the industry, and made some crypto firms reluctant to risk expansion
Firms such as Mantra, which operates a blockchain ecosystem, and 8 Blocks Capital, a cryptocurrency trading firm, took up office spaces on the fringes of Central, Hong Kong’s main business district.
Coingaroo opened two digital currency exchange outlets, one in Mong Kok in Kowloon and the other in Causeway Bay on Hong Kong Island, according to its website. Its office is also in Mong Kok.
In Tin Hau, a two-storey shop is occupied by CoinWeMit, which offers over-the-counter services for investors in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether.
Their presence brought some welcome relief to a segment that had been mired in a downturn as Covid-19 drove multinational companies away and sparked an exodus of locals and expats.
However, the segment is unlikely to become the ultimate saviour of the city’s sagging retail property market, according to analysts.
“We do not expect that these set-ups will take up a large amount of vacant commercial space in Hong Kong,” said Martin Wong, director and head of research and consultancy for Greater China at Knight Frank.
Oliver Tong, head of retail at JLL in Hong Kong, was equally pessimistic about the immediate future for the market but said the introduction of a new regulatory framework might lure more digital currency companies to Hong Kong.
Hongkongers have been seemingly unfazed by the lack of regulation hitherto. In a survey released in December 2021 by credit card company Visa, the city’s residents emerged as among the world’s largest investors in cryptocurrency. About a third of the population had either invested or used the asset as a medium of exchange.
Analysts believe the retail market is turning a corner now international borders are fully open and is likely to see some recovery this year. That is likely to be the main driver of a rebound in the commercial property sector, they said.
CBRE predicts as much as 10 per cent growth in rents paid by the city’s high-street retailers in 2023. Morgan Stanley has forecast a 5 per cent increase in retail rents this year as a surge in mainland Chinese tourists boosts consumption. The investment bank expects retail sales will grow by some 15 per cent this year and tourist visits will reach about 70 per cent of their level in 2018, before the pro-democracy protests and pandemic brought Hong Kong to its knees.
Colliers sees high-street rents growing by 8 per cent this year, thanks to the reopening of the border.
“We have received many leasing inquiries recently, particularly from beauty and fashion tenants,” said Cynthia Ng, head of retail services at Colliers. “We expect leasing momentum will pick up in the second quarter, and shops with an area of 1,000 to 2,000 square feet with monthly rent between HK$300,000 (US$38,220) and HK$500,000 will be sought-after.”
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