Goldman Sachs says Fed could cut rates by three-quarters of a point amid tariff war
Goldman Sachs says Fed could cut rates by a cumulative three-quarters of a point in July, September, and October
According to a report from the Wall Street investment bank on Monday, Fed officials would likely wait for clear evidence from the labour market and other data before implementing rate cuts, despite surveys signalling pessimistic expectations about the economic outlook.
“The hard data – which in the past have taken three months on average to deteriorate convincingly in real time – have yet to weaken,” the report noted.
A combination of economic data and surveys paints a mixed picture of the US economy, as tariffs weigh on confidence and expectations.
US consumer expectations for the future dropped to a 13-year low in April, as “tariffs are now on top of consumers’ minds”, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 for the month, down 7.9 points from a March reading, which was below an estimate from Dow Jones of 87.7.
Employment postings in March also fell to their lowest level since September 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On the last business day of March, 7.19 million job openings – down from 7.48 million in February – were posted. It was below a Wall Street expectation for 7.5 million posted openings.