Hong Kong property: Citi lifts forecast after Morgan Stanley’s upgrade
Most financial institutions forecast price gains ranging from 5 to 10 per cent, supported by supply constraints and end-user demand
Major financial institutions, including Citi and Bank of America, are increasingly optimistic about Hong Kong’s residential property market this year, as lower mortgage rates and strong leasing demand change buying behaviour.
Citi raised its home price forecast to 8 per cent this year, up from 3 per cent in October, citing a faster-than-expected rebound last year.
“[There will be] further acceleration in 2027 under a multi-year upcycle,” said Griffin Chan, an analyst at Citi Research, on Friday. He added that home sales this year were likely to exceed new completions for the first time since 2019.
Chan said the revised forecast reflected a fundamental shift rather than speculative demand, noting that new land supply had fallen to a 14-year low, while available housing stock shrank by about 10 per cent last year.
Structural demand was also improving, Chan said, pointing to rising student numbers and continuing inflows of skilled workers, which were supporting leasing and future owner-occupier demand.