AI, middle class and trade to drive global growth despite Iran conflict: HSBC chairman

Artificial intelligence, the expansion of Asia’s middle class and continued trade growth are set to underpin global economic expansion despite prolonged conflict involving Iran, according to the chairman of HSBC Holdings.

Hong Kong was expected to play a central role in that trajectory, given its status as a wealth management hub, trading centre and key connector between mainland China and global markets, Brendan Nelson said at the bank’s Global Investment Summit on Tuesday.

The lender’s flagship annual event drew more than 5,000 participants this year. Nelson also thanked delegates from the Middle East who travelled to attend despite the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, which began in late February and has pushed oil prices above US$100 a barrel.

“Four and a half months into 2026, there have already been a number of unexpected developments,” he said in his first public speech since taking the top role in December.

“The longer the disruption continues, the more the indirect effects from higher energy costs will lift inflation and depress growth. Since the conflict began, central bankers have mostly taken a wait-and-see approach. We expect the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to remain on hold this year.”

Despite the uncertainty, Nelson said he was optimistic that several structural drivers would help sustain growth.