China’s job market has worsened amid trade war, sharper slowdown ahead, Nomura report suggests
- Online searches for the word lay-off surged to a record high in December
- Report forecasts first-half growth to drop below 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent in 2018
A recent surge in online searches for keywords such as “lay-offs” and “job seeking” suggests the job market in mainland China has deteriorated amid its ongoing trade war with the United States.
According to a report released on Friday by Japanese investment bank Nomura, searches by Chinese internet users for the word lay-off have surged since October last year, reaching a record high in December. Similarly, searches for the words job seeking have risen since November and hit a record high in January.
China takes steps to support jobs as trade war starts to hit employment
“Although downward pressure on employment has yet to be fully felt and fully reflected in
headline statistics, we believe it will become more problematic for policymakers in the
quarters ahead, amid a likely sharper growth slowdown,” the report said, forecasting a sharper slowdown in first-half growth, to below 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent in 2018.
The report is based on the Baidu Index, which is compiled by the Chinese search engine based on the number of searches made.
Beijing discloses the official unemployment rate on a monthly basis, but analysts have challenged the reliability of this data, saying that the government is known to have “massaged numbers” to bolster confidence on previous occasions.
