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US-China trade war
BusinessBanking & Finance

Not every economist thinks the trade war is a huge deal; ‘look at the numbers’, says CME executive director

  • ‘I think this is a time for bargain hunting in Chinese stocks,’ says CME’s Erik Norland

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There is much anticipation about the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit in Japan this weekend. Photo: Reuters
Louise MoonandYujing Liu

The economic impact of the trade war is not as bad as many people think, according to some economists, who recommend investors continue betting on China.

The escalating US-China trade war and technology rivalry has hit businesses and consumers, and shifted some supply chains away from China as companies attempt to offset risk. Growth in Chinese imports and exports has also faltered.

Many investors are worried about the prospect of a US recession too, particularly if differences between Washington and Beijing are not resolved. Just last week the price of spot gold, typically viewed as a safe haven asset, rallied to a five-year high.
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But the real impact is not actually that severe and investors should continue to bank on the strength of China’s economy, which is unlikely to suffer a hard landing this year, some economists said.

“The trade war impact is a lot smaller than what a lot of people seem to worry about, or seem to think,” said Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist for global markets company CME Group.

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