Hong Kong protests will put off 350,000 mainland Chinese tourists this year, HSBC estimates

The massive protests that have rattled Hong Kong in recent weeks will put hundreds of thousands of mainland Chinese tourists off visiting the city this year, according to HSBC.

The bank believes that the number of visitors from the mainland will continue to grow in 2019, but at a slightly slower rate than it had forecast before people took to the streets in their millions to demonstrate against the now-suspended extradition bill.

It has revised down its estimated growth of mainland tourist arrivals for the year to 9 per cent from 9.7 per cent, according to a research report it released on Tuesday. Visitor numbers increased by 14 per cent in 2018.

The initial forecast would have equated to 56 million Chinese tourists. That means, according to the revised forecast, Hong Kong will welcome 350,000 fewer visitors from the mainland this year.

HSBC also now foresees a sharp fall in the number of mainlanders visiting the US this year, because of the political and economic tensions between the two countries. It had previously seen a marginal increase.

The lender revised down its estimate to a 5 per cent drop from 0.2 per cent growth. Beijing and Washington have been locked in a bitter trade dispute for over a year, the impact of which has spilled over into other sectors including tourism.

The bank made its original forecasts in April, straight after Hong Kong recorded 17.5 per cent annual growth in mainland visitors during the first quarter.

“We have trimmed our estimates for Hong Kong to 9.0 per cent for the year given the recent protests, which could affect tourism flows,” said Erwan Rambourg, HSBC’s global co-head of consumer and retail research, in the report.