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The Hong Kong dollar, which George Soros failed to break in 1998, is tempting hedge funds again. Will they succeed this time?

  • George Soros tried and failed to break the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US currency during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, while Bill Ackman’s wager on a dramatic strengthening in 2011 also proved fruitless
  • That history looms large as a new crop of hedge funds takes aim at the Hong Kong dollar once again, lured in part by anti-government protests that have rocked the financial hub for 12 straight weeks

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An employee counts US$100 banknotes at the Hang Seng Bank headquarters in Hong Kong on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. Photo: Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Crispin Odey has some advice for the traders ramping up wagers against Hong Kong’s currency: try something else.

“There are lots of good bets around at the moment,” said Odey, whose penchant for bold trades has made his hedge fund one of the world’s most volatile in recent years. “Hong Kong dollar is not there.”

The 60-year-old Briton knows a thing or two about the currency, having bet against it for more than two years before finally giving up in mid-2018. He’s not alone: George Soros tried and failed to break the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US currency during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, while Bill Ackman’s wager on a dramatic strengthening in 2011 also proved fruitless.

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That history looms large as a new crop of hedge funds takes aim at the Hong Kong dollar once again, lured in part by anti-government protests that have rocked the financial hub for 12 straight weeks.

Traders including Hayman Capital Management’s Kyle Bass, Crescat Capital’s Kevin Smith and Trium Capital’s Thomas Roderick are betting the unrest will spur capital flight, drive up interest rates and force the abandonment of a currency policy that has underpinned Hong Kong’s economy for more than three decades.

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