Asian banks from DBS to HSBC are bracing for bad loans to spike as coronavirus outbreak batters the region’s economies
- HSBC and Singapore’s biggest banks flag coronavirus epidemic is likely to swell loan losses
- Most lenders see short-term impact if virus is contained in coming weeks; S&P said worst-case, peak questionable loan ratio may almost double
Asian banks are bracing for a rough ride in the coming six months as the coronavirus epidemic disrupts businesses across the region, likely prompting a spike in bad loans and ultimately dealing a blow to their bottom lines.
Lenders from DBS, Singapore’s biggest bank, to HSBC, the largest of three currency-issuing banks in Hong Kong, have warned in the past two weeks that they will have to set aside additional provisions for loan losses in the first quarter – a risk they say is short term and manageable.
China’s biggest banks are not scheduled to update their guidance for 2020 until next month, but credit ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has forecast that the peak questionable loan ratio for China’s 285 trillion yuan (US$40.5 trillion) banking sector “may almost double” in a worst-case scenario.
“We have also seen it can take years to restore standards in [non-performing loan] recognition, and in the quality of the financial statements, once such standards are loosened,” S&P analyst Ryan Tsang said in a research note. “We see a risk that companies may exploit relaxed standards to drag out repayments for years.”
HSBC, which counts Hong Kong as its largest market and has made a big bet on growth in the Greater Bay Area, said last week it expects about US$600 million of provisions for additional loan losses if the coronavirus outbreak drags on into the second half of the year – its worst-case scenario.
