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Hedge fund manager, eyeing Hong Kong listing, sees US presidential election stoking more market volatility on contested outcome

  • US presidential election outcome is likely be contested, creating global market volatility, hedge fund says
  • True Partner Capital is set to be the first hedge fund manager to list in Hong Kong as it opens its books to public investor scrutiny

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US President Donald Trump is seen behind US flags as he speaks to supporters in Wisconsin on September 17. Photo: AFP
Georgina Lee
True Partner Capital expects an “extremely contested” US presidential election outcome in November to spark market volatility, benefiting investors who focused two-way swings in global equity prices.

The fund manager, which has applied for a listing on the smaller GEM board in Hong Kong, said this could also potentially set off a second wave of choppy trading in Hong Kong and China since the March sell-off caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

“Depending on who would be the next president, the isolationist policies under the current Trump administration could change,” Tobias Hekster, co-chief investment officer based in Chicago, said in a phone interview. “Any uncertainties about the future shape of US-China relations could drive volatilities in global equity markets.”

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The US election has taken a new twist since US president Donald Trump was infected by the virus, on top of uncertainty regarding the mail-in voting system that is being used this year. Mail-in ballots are expected to take longer to count and Trump has already questioned its reliability. Trump, coming out from his treatment, said he was ending talks with Democratic leaders on a new economic stimulus package, roiling markets.

In the March sell-off, the Hang Seng’s 30-day volatility index surged to 64.8 on March 16, the highest since the gauge was introduced in 2011. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s VIX, the volatility gauge of the S&P 500 index, also rose to a multi-year high on that day.

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True Partner Capital is seeking to raise up to HK$195 million (US$25.2 million) through an initial public offering that will close on Friday. It is selling 100 million shares, at HK$1.55 to HK$1.95 each in the IPO, with the proceeds intended for hiring and upgrading its technology. The stock is expected to start trading on October 16.

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