Jake's View | Chinese economy not really as bad as it’s made out to be. Here’s why
It’s not that bad. For starters we have a Lunar New Year anomaly here. The mainland’s exports are routinely way down in February, not only because it is a shorter month of the year but because of factory down time for the New Year holiday.
China’s exports plunged more than 20 per cent in February, falling on a scale not seen since the 2009 financial crisis.
SCMP, March 9
It’s not that bad.
For starters we have a Lunar New Year anomaly here. The mainland’s exports are routinely way down in February, not only because it is a shorter month of the year but because of factory down time for the New Year holiday.
Occasionally, however, the holiday falls in late February and this affects shipments in March. It happened last year and March was consequently the month last year in which exports were way down.
Thus we are comparing low figures for February this year, low as usual, with a February last year when they were higher than usual, and, of course, you then see a big plunge. I confidently predict that the trade figures for March will see a surprising element of export strength. Anyone care to take the bet?
Then we have the question of pricing. The latest figures show mainland China’s export unit price index falling by six per cent year over year. Such a steep drop has not been seen since the 2008-09 financial crisis.