HSBC tips Hong Kong and mainland Chinese shares to maintain recovery momentum in 2026
Attractive valuations, improved fundamentals and pro-growth policies – HSBC and UBS expect a ‘good year’ ahead as China hits growth targets
When investors were asked to sum up their outlook for 2026, the words that came up most often were “uncertainty” and “volatility”, said Michael Cross, the firm’s Asia chief investment officer, referring to recent discussions with clients. He added that the words also reflected how clients had felt during the past year, but 2025 turned out to be “a very good year for almost all asset classes”.
For global markets, concerns about trade policies were offset by the strength of underlying fundamentals and positive factors including a rate-cutting cycle, Cross said.
“We think 2026 will be another continuation, perhaps with more muted asset price rises, but still a pretty good year,” he said.
The base case for 2026 is that growth would remain resilient enough for earnings outside the US to continue catching up, according to Cross, who highlighted the rebound in emerging markets this year.
“China is expected to hit its growth target,” he said.