Chinese exports of semi-finished aluminium products are likely to drop in coming months as prices in the international market fall, industry sources and traders said. Exports of the semis, including profiles and plates, have been blamed as a factor for lower global premiums on primary aluminium. Lower availability could stop the premium from falling further, traders said. "Semis exports would fall later because LME aluminium prices have fallen," said a trader at a Chinese state-owned primary aluminium producer that also makes plates and exports the product. He added that exports in May had still been strong because those shipments had been booked a month or two before delivery. A trader at a Western producer of aluminium semis said overseas buyers would not buy more Chinese products because those products were no longer cheap. Exports of semis are typically priced on the cash value of London Metal Exchange aluminium and a processing fee for turning primary metal into the products. Chinese exporters step up their selling when LME prices are high and overseas buyers take more Chinese products when global premiums for primary metal are high. But both global premiums and LME prices have fallen. Premiums of spot primary aluminium have fallen more than 60 per cent from January. Cash LME prices have dropped more than 10 per cent from this year's high, seen last month. However, spot aluminium prices in China have fallen less than 6 per cent from the year's high in May as large smelters have limited their spot sales. Exports from smelters that also produce semis may fall.
