China's domestic oil production likely peaked this year and is about to enter a long-term structural decline, according to Nomura. It notes the experience from Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, which peaked in 1988: "Once the steep stage of the terminal decline output phase begins, there is generally no turning back." The takeaway is that China could be a buyer on global energy markets next year, importing bigger volumes as it seeks to offset waning domestic production. Nomura says demand from China should help offset new supply from Iran, with prices stabilising at an average US$55 per barrel next year.
