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Lithium price may fall by 25 per cent in 2023, offering relief for global electric car makers, Chinese miner says

  • The price of lithium carbonate may drop to 400,000 yuan a ton in 2023, from mid-November’s record 600,000 yuan a ton, said Sinomine Resource Group’s chairman
  • More mine supply will push the market into a surplus next year and help soften prices, BYD’s executive vice-president said

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Brine ponds and processing areas of the lithium mine of the Chilean company SQM (Sociedad Quimica Minera) in the Atacama Desert on September 12, 2022. Photo: AFP

Lithium is going to get less expensive in 2023, according to a Chinese supplier of the battery metal, potentially offering some relief to electric-vehicle makers squeezed by soaring costs.

Prices have already softened after a spectacular two-year rally labelled “insane” by Elon Musk and “unreasonable” by China’s BYD. The cool-off is poised to continue as more supply emerges to trim abnormally high margins for lithium producers, Wang Pingwei, chairman of Sinomine Resource Group said in an interview.

“We believe the gradual, downward trend for lithium will continue next year,” Wang said, predicting a fall of around a quarter from current levels that will still leave the company with “good” profits. Prices will not fall off a cliff as the market remains tight, said Wang, whose company operates mines in Zimbabwe and Canada.

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Lithium’s relentless rise since 2020 has hurt buyers and contributed to the first annual increase in battery costs since BloombergNEF started tracking them nearly a decade ago. Benchmark prices in China are still about twice as high as the start of 2022 – despite declining this month – as demand from the fast-expanding EV sector outstrips supply.
Car batteries in a factory for Xinwangda Electric Vehicle Battery in Nanjing in eastern China’s Jiangsu province on March 12, 2021. Photo: AFP
Car batteries in a factory for Xinwangda Electric Vehicle Battery in Nanjing in eastern China’s Jiangsu province on March 12, 2021. Photo: AFP

Sinomine’s Wang said he sees lithium carbonate prices drifting to about 400,000 yuan a ton in 2023. That compares with 527,500 yuan at present and a record of nearly 600,000 yuan in mid-November, according to data from Asian Metal. The lower level would still offer good margins for Sinomine, he said.

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Wang’s comments echo some other forecasts. More mine supply will push the market into a surplus next year and help soften prices, BYD’s Executive Vice-President Stella Li said earlier this month. China’s withdrawal of EV credits, as well as uncertainties over the pandemic and global economy, are also weighing on the outlook.
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