Analysis Stock picks for the Trump era: winners and losers
Banks, insurers and commodities will win, while trading companies, shippers and manufacturers are likely to lose, analysts say
Companies in trading, telecommunications, car assembly, ports and airlines are likely to be the hardest hit when Donald Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States next week, as they stand to feel the brunt if he makes good on his campaign pledges to tax imports and relocate jobs back to America, analysts said.
Banking and finance are likely to be the biggest winners as the US Federal Reserve has foreshadowed three interest rate increases this year. Construction companies and builders would benefit from any investments in public works or infrastructure, while suppliers of commodities and resources might gain from any roll-back in environmental impact regulations, analysts said.
“Trump swept to victory promising to boost growth through tax cuts, public spending and deregulation,” Pictet Asset Management’s senior investment manager Shaniel Ramjee said in an interview with the South China Morning Post. “In a rising rate environment, banks and insurers will continue to do well. I’ll be cautious on heavy borrowers of US dollars or Hong Kong dollars as the yuan’s depreciation will mean rising financial burden.”
Trump, who rode to electoral victory on a wave of anti-establishment populism instead of his interest or grasp of public policies, will bring a new approach to policymaking. That’s putting analysts and economists on edge to assess how his campaign pledges may translate into policies and how these will affect how the world does business or trade with the largest global economy.
JPMorgan’s Asia Trump policyshort basket index tracks 30 of Asian stocks most likely to be hit by Trump’s trade policies, comprising companies based in Taiwan, mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia.