Outlook for China trade growth positive but losing momentum, new index finds
The inaugural DHL Global Trade Barometer predicts a decline in seaborne trade as raw materials imports fall, but continued strength in air freight for exported goods
The outlook for trade growth in China remains positive but the country’s exports and imports are losing momentum, with seaborne trade set for a decline owing to a reduced appetite for industrial raw materials, a new index has found.
The inaugural DHL Global Trade Barometer, launched this month by the air cargo company and consulting firm Accenture, predicted high growth rates in Chinese airborne trade, particularly for exports of consumer goods.
The survey’s overall trade index, which is based on import and export data for a number of commodities in seven countries, stood at 59 for China in January, the lowest among the seven – the other six being the US, Germany, South Korea, India, Japan and the United Kingdom. A reading above 50 signals growth while one below indicates a contraction.
The China index was down from a reading of 63 in December, which was calculated for reference purposes based on the same criteria and which indicated a loss of momentum.
“With China’s economy shifting towards a more consumption- and service-driven model, it’s no surprise that the growth outlook for ocean freight is significantly lower than before,” said Kelvin Leung, chief executive of DHL’s Asia-Pacific forwarding business.
“China’s push to raise higher-quality global exports and domestic consumer spending are having the desired effect on trade and future economic development.”