US$400 billion expected to flow into Chinese stocks after MSCI inclusion: top fund manager
Asian investors could be the first movers after the MSCI inclusion, while European and US institutions may proceed with more caution
MSCI’s inclusion of China shares in its benchmark Emerging Markets Index will trigger foreign inflows of up to US$400 billion in the next 10 years, with an initial US$20 billion expected this year from ETFs and active funds, according to CSOP Asset Management, the world’s biggest RQFII asset manager that helps channel offshore yuan into mainland stocks and bonds.
The inclusion of yuan-denominated A shares, which are listed in either Shanghai or Shenzhen, in MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index will be effective on June 1. As many as 234 big-caps will be added in a two-step process in June and September, giving them an initial weighting of 0.78 per cent.
“Overseas investors have already speeded up asset allocation to Chinese equities in the past few months,” said Louis Lu, head of quantitative and alternative investments at CSOP. “This is good timing as the A-share valuation is relatively cheap at the moment.”
Northbound fund flows from Hong Kong to mainland China via the stock connect schemes have been increasing sharply, with April alone accounting for 38.65 billion yuan, the biggest since the start of 2017, data from the Hong Kong stock exchange showed.
MSCI unveils list of A shares in closely tracked investment index
Of these fund flows since June 2017, more than 75 per cent have gone into Chinese stocks outlined by the MSCI previously. Five sectors that attracted the most capital were financials, industrials, materials, IT, and consumer staples, according to exchange data.