Global tourism to take a US$80 billion hit and a year to shake off the effects of coronavirus outbreak

The coronavirus outbreak could cost the global tourism industry about US$80 billion in lost revenue, with players warning that the sector is unlikely to recover for at least one year.

With millions of Chinese cancelling travel plans, or delaying future holidays over safety fears because of the disease, now called Covid-19, online travel companies like Expedia and Tripadvisor are already forecasting a drop in revenues, which could ripple into everything from hotels to retail outlets abroad.

According to estimates by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Chinese outbound tourism will not recover to pre-coronavirus levels until the second quarter of 2021, and will cause a global loss of about US$80 billion.

EIU benchmarked current data against that from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak, which struck the mainland in late 2002, according to China analyst Dan Wang. She said that while China lifted its travel ban in July 2003, outbound tourism industry did not recover until early the next year.

“The biggest collective damage will happen for the Asean countries,” said Wang, as they are all among the top 20 destinations for Chinese outbound tourists. She estimated that this year, mainland tourists to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will drop by about 30 to 40 per cent, leading to a loss in tourism revenue of US$7 billion.