Chinese airlines may see a U-shaped recovery in air travel, as global carriers slog through 2023 to see the earliest glimpse of hope

Passenger level of global airlines will return to 2019 levels until 2023, IATA said

China passenger traffic may pick up after legislative meetings next week, led by the resumption of business trips, analysts said

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Passengers at a boarding area for domestic flights at the Beijing Capital International Airport on May 10, 2020. Photo: Kyodo

Published: 1:00am, 15 May 2020Updated: 11:03pm, 15 May 2020

Chinese carriers are likely to see a full recovery by 2021, as aircraft seats are filled by the gradual return of leisure and business air travel, helping the nation’s airlines beat a worldwide aviation slump that may remain until 2023 at the earliest.

Business travel has quickly rebounded in mainland China, as the infection rate of the coronavirus has stabilised, with little increase in the number of confirmed cases and death toll. Daily flights in China recovered to 43.1 per cent of capacity last month, 6.5 percentage points higher than March when large swathes of China remained under lockdown, according to data by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).

In contrast, 2021 global passenger traffic would be between 32 per cent and 41 per cent lower than the pre-pandemic levels, according to a forecast by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

“As the pandemic is under control in China, necessary business trips rebound quickly,” said Diao Weimin, a professor at the state-run Civil Aviation Management Institute of China, noting that the domestic travel market would be the main engine for early-stage recovery.

“Consumption travel such as tourism has not recovered as quickly, due to uncertainties of the [complete containment of] the virus.”

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The divergent fortunes of the aviation industry underscores how China’s draconian stay-at-home orders – helped by demand in the world’s largest population – are translating into a faster, U-shaped recovery. China’s air cargo volume surged, with the average outbound and inbound flights rising by 133.2 per cent in the first two weeks of May, accelerating from 55.2 per cent in April, CAAC said.