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African swine fever
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China’s billionaire farmer sees a tipping point in sky-high hog prices as herd recovers from African swine fever’s decimation

  • Muyuan has set a target to almost double its output to as many as 20 million hogs this year to help ease supply crunch
  • Chairman Qin is building on his US$17 billion fortune after stock rallies 209 per cent over the past year

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Consumers are seen buying pork at a market in Beijing on May 5. Prices have eased since the Lunar New Year amid rising supply from local and import sources. Photo: Kyodo
Yujing LiuandPearl Liu
Muyuan Foods, China’s largest pig farmer by market value, expects hog prices to fall over the next two to three years, as the industry’s output recovers from a sweeping epidemic that decimated the country’s herd by 40 per cent at one point.
The African swine fever, harmless to humans but fatal to pigs, spread to China in late 2018 and propelled a national crisis as the price of pork surged fourfold to a historical high of 41 yuan per kg through November last year. The price of the most important meat source in the Chinese diet retreated since the Lunar New Year to 28 yuan last week amid rising local output, imports and new entrants.

“Now pig farming is a freely competitive market, which means when pork prices are high, more people enter and supply increases,” said Qin Yinglin, chairman of Muyuan Foods based in central China’s Henan province. “Under this situation, the big trend over the next two to three years is that prices will move from high to low.”

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Despite the anticipated decline, pork prices are likely to stay above their previous troughs reached in 2018 and 2014 during the last two cycles as producers are likely to want to protect their margin, Qin said in a video interview with the Post.

“The cost of pig farming has increased since the African swine fever outbreak,” said Qin, China’s ninth richest person in 2019 with a net worth of US$17 billion according to Forbes. “Investments in n ewer equipment, like pig houses, are essential to keep pigs healthy.”

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