Battered travel industry will take years to recover even after coronavirus vaccines are rolled out, says Booking.com
- The recovery will depend on consumers’ willingness to spend money on leisure amid a downturn that has triggered salary cuts and redundancies
- Those willing to travel these days are tending to opt for domestic journeys, local beaches and nature trips by car, says regional managing director
“We believe that a vaccine and/or proven treatment is critical for people to feel safe to travel again, and even then, it will be years – not quarters – before travel returns to 2019 pre-pandemic levels,” said Angel Llull Mancas, vice president and managing director, Asia-Pacific, at the online travel service provider.
If and when a successful vaccine programme is rolled out globally, the travel industry’s recovery will also be dependent on the world economy and consumers’ willingness to spend money on leisure amid a downturn that has decimated corporate revenues and triggered salary cuts and even redundancies for many workers.
The global aviation industry, excluding airlines, is likely to lose US$2 trillion this year, according to an assessment by Zhang Lei, founder and president of the Institute for Aviation Research, an independent think tank.
Those willing to travel these days prefer domestic travel, beaches and nature trips. Alternative accommodation – anything from campsites to tree houses – is also popular, accounting for 40 per cent of new bookings on the platform in the second quarter.
Drive-to destinations are becoming more attractive as tourists are less likely to travel by plane.
“Since the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve seen a dramatic uptick in the use of specific words used by guests when they ask questions about a property. For example, the use of the words ‘clean’ and ‘hygiene’ have both increased by over 60 per cent,” Llull Mancas said.
Demand for international travel could fall by as much as 80 per cent this year, and recovery to pre-crisis levels could be stretched into 2023 if the global economy sinks further amid a worsening coronavirus pandemic, according to the worst-case projections of consultancy Euromonitor International released in June.
This finding is echoed by the latest data from global payment services company Mastercard. An analysis of its networks found that as of July, consumers in the G20, a group of 19 wealthy nations and the European Union, are spending within a “home-centered retail radius” as people travel and spend closer to home.
Another finding is that smaller hotels are faring better – their rate of recovery is more than 50 per cent better than larger ones.
